We document strong time-series momentum effects in individual stocks in the US markets from 1927 to 2017. Time-series momentum is not specific to sub-periods, firm sizes, formation-and holding-period lengths, or geographic markets. The effects persist after controlling for standard risk factors. Time-series momentum effects are conditional on the market state, the information discreteness of the constituent stocks and investor sentiment. We propose two alternative implementations, revised time-series momentum and dual momentum, which generate even higher profits than standard time-series momentum.
We document a systematic seasonal component in the aggregate underperformance of active mutual funds. At the aggregate level, active funds underperform the market and other passive benchmarks only in the first month of a quarter. This intra-quarter performance seasonality holds across fund sizes and investment styles. The pattern is consistent with shortterm stock return reversal effects along with aggregate window-dressing and, to a lesser extent, NAV-inflation practices around quarter-ends. We find marginal or no evidence of microstructure biases, fund investor flows, or cash distributions as sources of this seasonality. Our findings highlight new features of the active management underperformance puzzle.
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