Introduction There were few studies on the mortality of severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) in elderly people. Early prediction of 28-day mortality of hospitalized patients will help in the clinical management of elderly patients (age ≥65 years) with SCAP, but a prediction model that is reliable and valid is still lacking. Methods The 292 elderly patients with SCAP met the criteria defined by the American Thoracic Society from 33 hospitals in China. Clinical parameters were analyzed by the use of univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. A nomogram to predict the 28-day mortality in elderly patients with SCAP was constructed and evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and internally verified using the Bootstrap method. Results A total of 292 elderly patients (227 surviving and 65 died within 28 days) were included in the analysis. Age, Glasgow score, blood platelet, and blood urea nitrogen values were found to be significantly associated with 28-day mortality in elderly patients with SCAP. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.713 and the calibration curve for 28-day mortality also showed high coherence between the predicted and actual probability of mortality. Conclusion This study provides a nomogram containing age, Glasgow score, blood platelet, and blood urea nitrogen values that can be conveniently used to predict 28-day mortality in elderly patients with SCAP. This model has the potential to assist clinicians in evaluating prognosis of patients with SCAP.

Rationale Eosinophilic inflammation is related to the progression and outcomes of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). Till now, few studies have focused on low EOS in AECOPD. Objective To reveal the clinical characteristics, therapeutic responses and prognosis of patients hospitalized of AECOPD with low EOS. Methods The electronic database of Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University was used. Cohort 1 included 608 patients with hospitalized AECOPD. Study population 2 consisted of 166 patients with AECOPD admission at least twice. Impact of low EOS on NIMV treatment, length of hospital stays and 12-month AECOPD-related readmission were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression model. Thirty-five hospitalized AECOPD patients were prospectively recruited as cohort 3 to explore the association between EOS and other immune cells using Spearman correlation coefficient for ranked data. Results EOS level was suppressed on admission in AECOPD patients, and significantly improved after hospitalized treatment ( P < 0.05). For inflammatory markers, leucocytes, neutrophils and lactate dehydrogenase levels were higher, while lymphocytes, monocytes and interleukin-6 levels were lower in the low-EOS group than those in the non-low EOS group ( P < 0.05). Low EOS (EOS < 50 cells/μL) was an independent risk factor of NIMV use (OR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.26 ~ 2.73). The EOS percentage was positively correlated with the T cell percentage ( r = 0.46, P < 0.05) and negatively correlated with the natural killer cell percentage ( r = −0.39, P < 0.05). The patients with low EOS had lower level of CD4 + T cell ( P < 0.05) than that of patients with non-low EOS. Conclusion Low EOS might be a stable phenotype in patients with hospitalized AECOPD and could be used to inform NIMV management, hyperinflammatory state and impaired immunity situation.

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