The massive installation of renewable energy sources together with energy storage in the power grid can lead to fluctuating energy consumption when there is a bi-directional power flow due to the surplus of electricity generation. To ensure the security and reliability of the power grid, high-quality bi-directional power flow prediction is required. However, predicting bi-directional power flow remains a challenge due to the ever-changing characteristics of power flow and the influence of weather on renewable power generation. To overcome these challenges, we present two of the most popular hybrid deep learning (HDL) models based on a combination of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and long-term memory (LSTM) to predict the power flow in the investigated network cluster. In our approach, the models CNN-LSTM and LSTM-CNN were trained with two different datasets in terms of size and included parameters. The aim was to see whether the size of the dataset and the additional weather data can affect the performance of the proposed model to predict power flow. The result shows that both proposed models can achieve a small error under certain conditions. While the size and parameters of the dataset can affect the training time and accuracy of the HDL model.
A regional grid cluster proposal is required to tackle power grid complexities and evaluate the impact of decentralized renewable energy generation. However, implementing regional grid clusters poses challenges in power flow forecasting owing to the inherent variability of renewable power generation and diverse power load behavior. Accurate forecasting is vital for monitoring the imported power during peak regional load periods and surplus power generation exported from the studied region. This study addressed the challenge of multistep bidirectional power flow forecasting by proposing an LSTM autoencoder model. During the training stage, the proposed model and baseline models were developed using autotune hyperparameters to fine-tune the models and maximize their performance. The model utilized the last 6 h leading up to the current time (24 steps of 15 min intervals) to predict the power flow 1 h ahead (4 steps of 15 min intervals) from the current time. In the model evaluation stage, the proposed model achieved the lowest RMSE and MAE scores with values of 32.243 MW and 24.154 MW, respectively. In addition, it achieved a good R2 score of 0.93. The evaluation metrics demonstrated that the LSTM autoencoder outperformed the other models for multistep forecasting task in a regional grid cluster proposal.
This paper provides a method for simplified description of a regional power grid model aimed to deliver a grid reduction, and improve grid performance observability. The derived power grid model can be used to analyze the regional allocation of the decentralized energy generation and consumption. The expansion of wind and solar generation in the power system affects the residual load. The power balance between electricity consumption and generation was calculated and analyzed based on the temporal and spatial scales. The proposed grid clustering method is a useful approach for performance analysis in systems with a growing share of renewable generation.
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