The massive installation of renewable energy sources together with energy storage in the power grid can lead to fluctuating energy consumption when there is a bi-directional power flow due to the surplus of electricity generation. To ensure the security and reliability of the power grid, high-quality bi-directional power flow prediction is required. However, predicting bi-directional power flow remains a challenge due to the ever-changing characteristics of power flow and the influence of weather on renewable power generation. To overcome these challenges, we present two of the most popular hybrid deep learning (HDL) models based on a combination of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and long-term memory (LSTM) to predict the power flow in the investigated network cluster. In our approach, the models CNN-LSTM and LSTM-CNN were trained with two different datasets in terms of size and included parameters. The aim was to see whether the size of the dataset and the additional weather data can affect the performance of the proposed model to predict power flow. The result shows that both proposed models can achieve a small error under certain conditions. While the size and parameters of the dataset can affect the training time and accuracy of the HDL model.
This article presents the selection of an appropriate deep learning Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based probabilistic hour-ahead forecasting model for a grid connected industrial solar PV power plant located in Poland. It has a 317 kW peak power capacity and is connected with a metallurgical plant producing steel for car parts. The purpose of the study is to present a model that could be used by the plant to participate in the Polish intra-day electricity market. Four different LSTM models were investigated which include the vanilla model, the stacked LSTM model, the Bi-directional LSTM model and the LSTM-Autoencoder model. Out of the investigated models it was observed that the LSTM-Autoencoder model was the best performing one in terms of reliability. The average Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the Autoencoder model over 100 runs were 15.59 kW and 8.36 kW which represent 4.9% and 2.6% of the peak power respectively. Moreover, it was observed that it has the shortest width for the 95% confidence interval of only 0.5% for both the RMSE and the MAE. In terms of accuracy the best performing model was the LSTM bi-directional model with the average RMSE and MAE values of 12.87 kW and 6.91 kW which represent 4% and 2.1% of the peak power. The 95% confidence intervals width for both the RMSE and MAE over the 100 runs were 0.8% and 0.5% respectively.INDEX TERMS Solar power forecasting, LSTM, deep learning, electricity market and grid connected solar PV.
A regional grid cluster proposal is required to tackle power grid complexities and evaluate the impact of decentralized renewable energy generation. However, implementing regional grid clusters poses challenges in power flow forecasting owing to the inherent variability of renewable power generation and diverse power load behavior. Accurate forecasting is vital for monitoring the imported power during peak regional load periods and surplus power generation exported from the studied region. This study addressed the challenge of multistep bidirectional power flow forecasting by proposing an LSTM autoencoder model. During the training stage, the proposed model and baseline models were developed using autotune hyperparameters to fine-tune the models and maximize their performance. The model utilized the last 6 h leading up to the current time (24 steps of 15 min intervals) to predict the power flow 1 h ahead (4 steps of 15 min intervals) from the current time. In the model evaluation stage, the proposed model achieved the lowest RMSE and MAE scores with values of 32.243 MW and 24.154 MW, respectively. In addition, it achieved a good R2 score of 0.93. The evaluation metrics demonstrated that the LSTM autoencoder outperformed the other models for multistep forecasting task in a regional grid cluster proposal.
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