Water yield is a key ecosystem function index, directly impacting the sustainable development of the basin economy and ecosystem. Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes are the main driving factors affecting water yield. In the context of global climate change, assessing the impacts of climate and LULC changes on water yield in the alpine regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is essential for formulating rational management and development strategies for water resources. On the basis of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, we simulated and analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and the impacts of LULC and climate changes on water yield from 2001 to 2019 in the upstream regions of the Shule River Basin (USRB) on the northeastern margin of the QTP. Three scenarios were designed in the InVEST model to clearly analyze the contributions of climate and LULC changes on the variation of water yield. The first scenario integrated climate and LULC change into the model according to the actual conditions. The second scenario was simulation without LULC change, and the third scenario was without climate change. The results showed that (1) the InVEST model had a good performance in estimating water yield (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.986; root mean square error (RMSE) = 3.012, p < 0.05); (2) the water yield significantly increased in the temporal scale from 2001 to 2019, especially in the high altitude of the marginal regions (accounting for 32.01%), while the northwest regions significantly decreased and accounted for only 8.39% (p < 0.05); (3) the spatial distribution of water yield increased from the middle low-altitude regions to the marginal high-altitude regions; and (4) through the analysis of the three scenarios, the impact of climate change on water yield was 90.56%, while that of LULC change was only 9.44%. This study reveals that climate warming has a positive impact on water yield, which will provide valuable references for the integrated assessment and management of water resources in the Shule River Basin.
Land desertification associated with climate change and human activities significantly impacts ecosystem functioning in semi-arid alpine mountains. However, accurately revealing the state of desertification risk and the drivers of its evolution is frequently difficult, especially in the semi-arid alpine mountains. A new theoretical framework that combined qualitative and quantitative concepts has been developed to enhance ecological risk assessment in semi-arid alpine mountains and reveal the causes of desertification. The PSR model, multi-layer hierarchical theory, hierarchical analysis, inverse cloud generating principles, field surveys, structured questionnaires, and remote sensing techniques are all combined in this method. Our results showed that the risk of desertification in the study area exhibited a fluctuating trend between 2000 and 2020, with a period of decrease, followed by an increase, and then a subsequent decrease. However, the risk status remained overall stable, remaining at a light desertification level during the entire period. Desertification risk is driven primarily by climate warming and humidification, which can cause the melting of ice/snow. Additionally, increased rainfall and freeze–thaw cycles can enhance soil erosion, further exacerbating the risk. Conversely, the implementation of environmental protection projects, such as the establishment of protected areas, efforts to restore forests and grasslands, and initiatives to conserve soil and water, has been effective in limiting the increase in desertification risk. These efforts serve as a counterforce to the negative impacts of climate change and human activity, highlighting the beneficial effects of human intervention in preventing desertification. High-altitude, high-topographic relief places have considerable desertification risk, mainly in the alpine desert. Due to geography, grazing, rodent and pest infestation, and wildlife, there is still a risk of desertification expanding in low elevation areas. There will be a greater urgency in the future to enhance the management of anthropogenic activities in the local environment in order to handle the growing threat of desertification caused by climate change. This study combined the interactions of the natural environment and human activities, filled a research gap in assessing desertification risk, and revealed its driving mechanisms, as well as provided a theoretical foundation for improving the integrity and sustainability of ecosystems in semi-arid alpine regions and elsewhere.
The water level of Qinghai Lake, the largest saltwater lake in China, has been rising consistently, which has altered the lake’s ecosystem service patterns and produced an unpredictable impact on local ecological security and sustainable development. To explore the changes in the area around Qinghai Lake’s ecosystem provisioning services that respond to the rise in water level, the spatial and temporal changes of three ecosystem services (water yield, soil conservation, and habitat quality) from 2000 to 2020 were calculated by the InVEST model. Then, the ecosystem service transformation of the rise in Qinghai Lake's underwater level was evaluated, and the trade-off and synchrony among the three ecosystem services were discussed. Finally, Random Forest and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression models were used, to reveal the driving factors and spatial differentiation of ecosystem service change. Results showed that: (1) Although three ecosystem provisioning services were increased by 3.21%, 31.67%, and 6.19%, respectively, in 2000–2020, an overall change trend was observed that they increased first and then decreased. After reaching their peak values in 2005 (444.68 mm), 2015 (341.89 t·hm−2·a−1) and 2015 (0.67), three ecosystem provisioning services decreased to 349.27 mm, 271.82 t·hm−2·a−1, and 0.66 in 2020, respectively. (2) Three ecosystem provisioning services, as well as ecosystem services among different land use types, presented a synchronous relationship during the research periods. (3) Natural factors, such as precipitation and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), accounted for 30.0% of ecosystem services changes, and Social-economic factors, such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and population accounted for 28.0% of three ecosystem provisioning services changes. These driving factors exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity (adjusted R2 > 0.6). There were limitations in the scope of ecosystem services evaluation and insufficient consideration of the value of aquatic habitats, which deserved further exploration. This study may provide a scientific basis for the evaluation and management of the plateau lake ecosystem under the background of climate change.
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