The article contains the results of Data Science technologies application (including machine learning and regression analysis) to modelling the results of marketing activities of key brand of one of the Ukrainian pharmaceutical companies on the basis of historical data for the period from 2015 to 2019 in weekly detail. The main goal of research is to estimate the influence of key elements of the marketing mix (penetration of pharmacy chains, price policy vs main competitors, advertising activity of the brand and its competitors in all communication channels (television, Digital, radio, outdoor advertising, press)) on company's sales, volume market share and value market share in relevant segment of drugs. Based on the results obtained, the article explains in detail the impact of penetration, price policy and media activity on the competitiveness of the enterprise and its position in the market. The influence of the price policy and penetration directly on sales (market share), as well as on other factors (including the effectiveness of the brand's advertising activity on television) is estimated and taken into account for development the effective marketing strategy. Based on the research, the article contains main recommendations for optimizing the marketing strategy to maximize the company's sales and increasing market share in monetary or physical terms. Data Science technologies become a tool for sales management, because it creates the ability to quantify the impact of each factor on sales, determine their optimal combination for achievement of business goals and strengthening the company's position in the market, effective marketing budgets distribution and scenario forecasting. Continuous model support allows to increase the return on each factor, improve return on investment and ensure the achievement of business goals in the most efficient way. Data Science forms the basis for finding effective marketing solutions and forming an effective business development strategy.
The telecommunication company functioned in the market with extremely high competitiveness. Attracting new customers needs 5-10 times more expenses than maintaining an existing one. As a result, effective customer churn management and analysis of the reasons for customer churn are vital tasks for telecommunication operators. As a result, predicting subscriber churn by switching on the competitors becomes very important. Data Science and machine learning create enormous opportunities for solving this task to evaluate customer satisfaction with company services, determine factors that cause disappointment, and forecast which clients are at a greater risk of abandoning and changing services suppliers. A company that implements data analysis and modelling to develop customer churn prediction models has an opportunity to improve customer churn management and increase business results. The purposes of the research are the application of machine learning models for a telecommunications company, in particular, the construction of models for predicting the user churn rate and proving that Data Science models and machine learning are high-quality and effective tools for solving the tasks of forecasting the key marketing metrics of a telecommunications company. Based on the example of Telco, the article contains the results of the implementation of various models for classification, such as logistic regression, Random Forest, SVM, and XGBoost, using Python programming language. All models are characterised by high quality (the general accuracy is over 80%). So, the paper demonstrates the feasibility and possibility of implementing the model to classify customers in the future to anticipate subscriber churn (clients who may abandon the company’s services) and minimise consumer outflow based on this. The main factors influencing customer churn are established, which is basic information for further forecasting client outflow. Customer outflow prediction models implementation will help to reduce customer churn and maintain their loyalty. The research results can be useful for optimising marketing activity of managing the outflow of consumers of companies on the telecommunication market by developing effective decisions based on data and improving the mathematical methodology of forecasting the outflow of consumers. Therefore, the study’s main theoretical and practical achievements are to develop an efficient forecasting tool for enterprises to control outflow risks and to enrich the research on data analysis and Data Science methodology to identify essential factors that determine the propensity of customers to churn.
The start of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war caused the largest wave of migration in the 21st century. More than five million Ukrainian citizens left for EU countries within a few months of the start of the conflict. The purpose of this paper is to forecast the level of health care expenditure in Ukraine for 2023–2024, considering the scale of migration and the fall in the level of GDP. The authors propose three scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s economy in 2023–2024, taking into account changes in the age structure of the population, migration, and the amount of health care expenditure: (1) Pessimistic, in which economic growth will resume only in 2024, with a GDP rise of 5.6%, provided that the war concludes at the end of 2022. Under this scenario, inflation will be about 21% in 2023–2024, a slight decrease compared with the previous year. Some 12% of the population of Ukraine will have emigrated, resulting in a corresponding 12% drop in health care expenditure in 2023–2024. (2) Basic (realistic), in which economic growth will be about 5% in 2023–2024, inflation will be under 10%, and migration will have accounted for 5% of the country’s population. Under this scenario, there will be an increase in health care expenditure of more than 40% in 2023–2024. (3) Optimistic, according to which rapid economic growth is expected in 2023–2024, inflation will not exceed 7%, the majority of those who left Ukraine in the early months of the war will return, and health care expenditure will increase by more than 70% in 2023–2024. The methodology of forecasting public expenditure on health care has been based on a six-step cohort method. The results have indicated that the cost of updating the age structure of Ukraine’s population every year will decrease due to the aging of the population, and the overall impact of demographic processes will be negative. The impact of mass migration due to the war creates a significant change in health care costs, requiring administrative bodies to monitor the situation promptly and make appropriate changes to the structure of budget expenditure.
The telecommunications market is well developed but is characterized by oversaturation and high levels of competition. Based on this, the urgent problem is to retain customers and predict the outflow of customer base by switching subscribers to the services of competitors. Data Science technologies and data mining methodology create significant opportunities for companies that implement data analysis and modeling for development of customer churn prediction models. The research goals are to compare different approaches and methods for customer churn prediction and construct different Data Science models to classify customers according to the probability of their churn from the company’s client base and predict potential customers who could stop to use the company’s services. On the example of one of the leading Ukrainian telecommunication companies, the article presents the results of different classification models, such as C5.0, KNN, Neural Net, Ensemble, Random Tree, Neural Net Ensemble, etc. All models are prepared in IBM SPSS Modeler and have a high level of quality (the overall accuracy and AUC ROC are more than 90%). So, the research proves the possibility and feasibility of using models in the further classification of customers to predict customer loyalty to the company and minimize consumer’s churn. The key factors influencing the customer churn are identified and form a basis for future prediction of customer outflow and optimization of company’s services. Implementation of customer churn prediction models will help to maintain customer loyalty, reduce customer outflow and increase business results
Social capital has become an important aspect of most rural communities in developing nations. But, the dimensions of social capital vary across rural regions while little is known about the factors influencing it in rural areas. This study aimed to identify the prevalent social capital dimensions in rural areas and examine the factors determining rural people involved in those dimensions. A field survey which consists of structured and self-administered questionnaire was carried out with rural households. The information of the survey was obtained from 220 rural households in the study area between August and October, 2019. The descriptive analysis identified social networks (3.875), norms (societal values) (3.390), trust and solidarity (4.115), and cooperation and group action (4.139) as the prevailing social capital dimensions in the rural communities. The results further suggest that cooperation, trust and solidarity, and networks are respectively the dominating social capital dimensions in the rural areas. The results from probit model estimates show that the factors that are more likely to be associated with social capital in rural areas include education, access to credit and ownership of farm (cash crop). Since social capital is becoming a prerequisite for rural development, our findings lead to the suggestion that cooperation, build-up of networks should be facilitated for people in the rural areas. Furthermore, policy direction towards access to education, credit provision and development of primary occupation in the rural areas should also be enhanced. Economic policy makers and rural development agencies are invited to continuously work on the identified factors to promote the individual, community and national development on equitable basis.
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