BackgroundDengue is one of the major health problems in Sri Lanka causing an enormous social and economic burden to the country. An accurate early warning system can enhance the efficiency of preventive measures. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a simple accurate forecasting model for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Three time-series regression models were developed using monthly rainfall, rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed and retrospective dengue incidences over the period January 2012 to November 2015 for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Various lag times were analyzed to identify optimum forecasting periods including interactions of multiple lags. The models were validated using epidemiological data from December 2015 to November 2017. Prepared models were compared based on Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and residual analysis.ResultsThe selected model forecasted correctly with mean absolute errors of 0.07 and 0.22, and root mean squared errors of 0.09 and 0.28, for training and validation periods, respectively. There were no dengue epidemics observed in the district during the training period and nine outbreaks occurred during the forecasting period. The proposed model captured five outbreaks and correctly rejected 14 within the testing period of 24 months. The Pierce skill score of the model was 0.49, with a receiver operating characteristic of 86% and 92% sensitivity.ConclusionsThe developed weather based forecasting model allows warnings of impending dengue outbreaks and epidemics in advance of one month with high accuracy. Depending upon climatic factors, the previous month’s dengue cases had a significant effect on the dengue incidences of the current month. The simple, precise and understandable forecasting model developed could be used to manage limited public health resources effectively for patient management, vector surveillance and intervention programmes in the district.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2828-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Background The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) is presently being tested to control dengue in several countries. SIT aims to cause the decline of the target insect population through the release of a sufficient number of sterilized male insects. This induces sterility in the female population, as females that mate with sterilized males produce no offspring. Male insects are sterilized through the use of ionizing irradiation. This study aimed to evaluate variable parameters that may affect irradiation in mosquito pupae. Methods An Ae. aegypti colony was maintained under standard laboratory conditions. Male and female Ae. aegypti pupae were separated using a Fay and Morlan glass sorter and exposed to different doses of gamma radiation (40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 Gy) using a Co60 source. The effects of radiation on survival, flight ability and the reproductive capacity of Ae. aegypti were evaluated under laboratory conditions. In addition, mating competitiveness was evaluated for irradiated male Ae. aegypti mosquitoes to be used for future SIT programmes in Sri Lanka. Results Survival of irradiated pupae was reduced by irradiation in a dose-dependent manner but it was invariably greater than 90% in control, 40, 50, 60, 70 Gy in both male and female Ae. aegypti. Irradiation didn’t show any significant adverse effects on flight ability of male and female mosquitoes, which consistently exceeded 90%. A similar number of eggs per female was observed between the non-irradiated groups and the irradiated groups for both irradiated males and females. Egg hatch rates were significantly lower when an irradiation dose above 50 Gy was used as compared to 40 Gy in both males and females. Irradiation at higher doses significantly reduced male and female survival when compared to the non-irradiated Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Competitiveness index (C) scores of sterile and non-sterile males compared with non-irradiated male mosquitoes under laboratory and semi-field conditions were 0.56 and 0.51 respectively at 50 Gy. Signification Based on the results obtained from the current study, a 50 Gy dose was selected as the optimal radiation dose for the production of sterile Ae. aegypti males for future SIT-based dengue control programmes aiming at the suppression of Ae. aegypti populations in Sri Lanka.
Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral infection disease in Sri Lanka triggering extensive economic and social burden in the country. Even after numerous source reduction programmes, more than 30,000 incidences are reporting in the country every year. The last and greatest dengue epidemic in the country was reported in July, 2017 with more than 300 dengue related deaths and the highest number of dengue incidences were reported from the District of Gampaha. There is no Dengue Virus (DENV) detection system in field specimens in the district yet and therefore the aim of the study is development of entomological surveillance approach through vector survey programmes together with molecular and phylogenetic methods to identify detection of DENV serotypes circulation in order to minimize adverse effects of imminent dengue outbreaks. Entomological surveys were conducted in five study areas in the district for 36 months and altogether, 10,616 potential breeding places were investigated and 423 were positive for immature stages of dengue vector mosquitoes. During adult collections, 2,718 dengue vector mosquitoes were collected and 4.6% (n = 124) were Aedes aegypti. While entomological indices demonstrate various correlations with meteorological variables and reported dengue incidences, the mosquito pools collected during the epidemic in 2017 were positive for DENV. The results of the phylogenetic analysis illustrated that Envelope (E) gene sequences derived from the isolated DENV belongs to the Clade Ib of Cosmopolitan genotype of the DENV serotype 2 which has been the dominant stain in SouthEast Asian evidencing that a recent migration of DENV strain to Sri Lanka.
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