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Policy makers seeking to reduce childhood obesity must prioritize investment in treatment and primary prevention. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of seven interventions high on the obesity policy agenda: a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax; elimination of the tax subsidy for advertising unhealthy food to children; restaurant menu calorie labeling; nutrition standards for school meals; nutrition standards for all other food and beverages sold in schools; improved early care and education; and increased access to adolescent bariatric surgery. We used systematic reviews and a microsimulation model of national implementation of the interventions over the period 2015-25 to estimate their impact on obesity prevalence and their cost-effectiveness for reducing the body mass index of individuals. In our model, three of the seven interventions--excise tax, elimination of the tax deduction, and nutrition standards for food and beverages sold in schools outside of meals--saved more in health care costs than they cost to implement. Each of the three interventions prevented 129,000-576,000 cases of childhood obesity in 2025. Adolescent bariatric surgery had a negligible impact on obesity prevalence. Our results highlight the importance of primary prevention for policy makers aiming to reduce childhood obesity.

Quantifying the energy imbalance responsible for recent changes in weight distribution among children can provide salient targets for population intervention. Consistent behavioral changes averaging 110 to 165 kcal/day may be sufficient to counterbalance the energy gap. Changes in excess dietary intake (eg, eliminating one sugar-sweetened beverage at 150 kcal per can) may be easier to attain than increases in physical activity levels (eg, a 30-kg boy replacing sitting for 1.9 hours with 1.9 hours walking for an extra 150 kcal). Youth at higher levels of weight gain will likely need changes in multiple behaviors and environments to close the energy gap.

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