In this study, the influence of sea‐level rise (SLR) on seasonal hypoxia and phytoplankton production in Chesapeake Bay is investigated using a 3D unstructured grid model. Three SLR scenarios (0.17, 0.5, and 1.0 m) were conducted from 1991 to 1995. Results show that the summer hypoxic volume (HV) increases about 2%, 8%, and 16%, respectively, for these three scenarios, compared with Base Scenario. The contributions of physical and biological processes on the increase in the HV were analyzed. With the projected SLR, enhanced gravitational circulation transports more oxygen‐rich water in the bottom layer from the mouth. However, the pycnocline moves upwards along with increasing water depth, which largely prolongs the time for dissolved oxygen (DO) to be transported to the bottom. The altered physical processes contribute greatly to a larger HV bay‐wide. Besides, SLR increases the whole Bay phytoplankton production, with a larger increase in shallow areas (e.g., 53% in areas with depth <1 m under SLR of 0.5 m). Enhanced light availability is suggested to be the major driver of blooming phytoplankton under SLR in shallow areas. While increased DO production over the euphotic zone is mostly released to the atmosphere and transported downstream, the increase in settled organic matter greatly promotes DO consumption in the water column. The increased respiration is another major cause of the HV increase besides the physical contributions.

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The response of tidal range in tidal marshes under sea‐level rise (SLR) is essential to the marsh resilience, but how tidal ranges respond to different marsh evolutions remains unclear. Here, we show the existence of bifurcate responses of tidal range to SLR using both numerical model and theoretical analyses. The tidal range tends to increase if marsh accretion keeps pace with SLR; otherwise, the tidal range tends to decrease. As tidal range plays the key role in marsh evolution, the interactions between changing tidal range and marsh evolution lead to positive feedback on marsh resilience. If the marsh accretion can keep up with the SLR, the increase in the tidal range can enhance marsh resilience to SLR. If the marsh cannot keep up, the decrease in the tidal range may further threaten the marsh resilience or even lead to marsh retreat.

Highly productive tidal marshes play a key role in the estuarine ecosystem by affecting the dynamics of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen (Bridgham et al., 2006;Chmura et al., 2003). Sedimentation is greatly enhanced in the tidal marshes due to enhanced flow impedance locally and the tidal marshes tend to be traps of particulate material, therefore retaining a significant amount of carbon and other nutrients (