Abstract:Declining groundwater levels caused by irrigation is the main problem for agricultural development in Northern China. Due to both economics and increased population, surface water has become almost non-existent and groundwater is the only water resource left. Currently the groundwater is declining at a rate between 50 and 100 cm per year. Sustainable development in Northern China requires effective management of the groundwater resources. In this study, the effect of future irrigation patterns on the decline of the groundwater table is examined with the aid of MODFLOW. MODFLOW was calibrated for five observation wells in the county. The calibrated model fitted the observed data well over a 7-year period. The simulated results showed that the groundwater decline would be decreased, and perhaps halted, by decreasing the use of irrigation.
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