No abstract

The objective of this work was to perform preliminary assessment of the performance of different models for the simulation of three main phenology stages (budburst, flowering, and veraison) of grapevine in China. This work utilized observations from five representative wine regions (Changli, Laixi, Shangri-La, Xiaxian, and Yanqi) and four widely cultivated grape cultivars (Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet Franc, Merlot, and Chardonnay) in China. The corresponding daily temperature data were used to simulate the timing of grape phenology stages based on the different phenological models. The dates based on the simulation and the actual dates were compared and the performance of these models were assessed for different cultivars and wine regions. The GDD10 model exhibited the best performance for budburst simulation in soil-burying regions, irrespective of the cultivar and location. For flowering and veraison, the optimal model varied in performance between cultivars and locations, and non-linear models exhibited better performance than linear models. In general, the performance of these models was better for the latter two stages than for budburst. The models with relatively good performance were selected for further calibration using these limited Chinese observations. The impact of soil-burying management on budburst simulation was also estimated. These results highlight the strengths of some phenological models for use in China. This study also reiterates the strong need for establishment of a grapevine phenology observation network in China to obtain more comprehensive data.

Northeast China is one of the major wine-making grape bases in China. It is of great significance to study the influence of climate change on grape planting regionalization in northeast China for industrial layout and grape variety selection. According to the 168 weather stations in northeast China Daily meteorological data, calculate the frost-free period, growing season dry degree, active accumulated temperature of April to September, average annual extreme low temperature and other indicators, the 45 years from 1967 to 2011 in the northeast of grapes zoning index change trend, using GIS analysis of wine grapes in the northeast suitable cultivated area change of time and space. The results showed that the temperature increased obviously in the growing season, the indexes such as frost-free period and accumulated temperature of activity increased greatly, the suitable cultivation area of wine grapes expanded greatly to the north, and the dryness changed obviously between generations, showing a rising trend of fluctuation. The impact of climate change on viticulture varies from region to region, but overall, climate change is beneficial to wine viticulture in northeast China. The article also makes a series of Suggestions on how to use the effects of climate change to select varieties and improve wine quality.

The objective of this work was to estimate the influence of climate variability on viticultural zoning and variety regionalisation in China in the past 50 years. A multicriteria climatic indices system, which includes Frost-Free Season (FFS), Dryness Index (DI), and Extreme Low Temperature (ELT), was used to define climatic suitable areas and classify different climate zones for wine grape-growing in China. The Accumulated Effective Temperature (AET) was used as an index of variety regionalisation. Indices were calculated based on daily climatic observations from national ground weather stations throughout China from between 1967 and 2016. The variation trends were analysed by Sen’s slope and Mann-Kendall non-parametric tests in 13 representative wine growing sites. Based on the studied criteria, the suitable viticultural zone exhibited a continuous northward expansion with an average increase of 0.204 million km2/decade, largely due to increasing FFS. A significant increase of FFS was detected in most representative sites, with almost no detectable change of DI during the growing season. The analysis also revealed that the North East Region, Inner Mongolia Region, and Xinjiang Region are the three most profitable wine regions. Movement of the soil-burying line was limited to Shandong and Hebei provinces. Although the suitable viticultural zone increased, the data also revealed a decrease in the area for high quality wine production when considering varietal suitability. These results have important implications for understanding both new opportunities and challenges under changing climate and the latter’s effects on viticultural viability in China. They can also help guide stakeholders to develop adaptive strategies for maintaining the profitability of currently used regions and for developing new regions for viticulture.

The Hengduan Mountain region of China is one of the world's highest altitude and lowest latitude wine grape cultivation areas. This study screened the existing regional indexes; the active accumulated temperature (AAT) for grapes in the growing season was chosen as the heat index, and the dryness index (DI) in the growing season was chosen as the water index for climatic regionalization. An analysis of 90-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data and the corresponding slope degree and direction for the Hengduan Mountain region in the range of 97°E-103°E, 27°N-33°N, as well as daily meteorological data over 30 years (1981-2010) from 53 stations in the study region, were used to establish the AAT and DI models for the northern area of the Hengduan Mountains. According to the multiple stepwise regression method, the interaction terms among different geographical and topographic factors were considered. In addition, the residual errors were interpolated and corrected based on the modeling, and this approach further improved the simulation accuracy of meteorological factors. A regional climatic map of wine grapes was produced according to these results. The model was used to calculate the suitable altitude range for wine grape cultivation in different regions of the Hengduan Mountains. The study shows that the distribution of suitable wine grape cultivation areas in the northern part of the mountain range generally mimics distribution of dry warm and dry hot valleys. The accuracy of the results was confirmed based on the existing locations of vineyards in the Hengduan Mountain region.