BackgroundThe burden of shigellosis is greatest in resource-poor countries. Although this diarrheal disease has been thought to cause considerable morbidity and mortality in excess of 1,000,000 deaths globally per year, little recent data are available to guide intervention strategies in Asia. We conducted a prospective, population-based study in six Asian countries to gain a better understanding of the current disease burden, clinical manifestations, and microbiology of shigellosis in Asia.Methods and FindingsOver 600,000 persons of all ages residing in Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand were included in the surveillance. Shigella was isolated from 2,927 (5%) of 56,958 diarrhoea episodes detected between 2000 and 2004. The overall incidence of treated shigellosis was 2.1 episodes per 1,000 residents per year in all ages and 13.2/1,000/y in children under 60 months old. Shigellosis incidence increased after age 40 years. S. flexneri was the most frequently isolated Shigella species (1,976/2,927 [68%]) in all sites except in Thailand, where S. sonnei was most frequently detected (124/146 [85%]). S. flexneri serotypes were highly heterogeneous in their distribution from site to site, and even from year to year. PCR detected ipaH, the gene encoding invasion plasmid antigen H in 33% of a sample of culture-negative stool specimens. The majority of S. flexneri isolates in each site were resistant to amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole. Ciprofloxacin-resistant S. flexneri isolates were identified in China (18/305 [6%]), Pakistan (8/242 [3%]), and Vietnam (5/282 [2%]).ConclusionsShigella appears to be more ubiquitous in Asian impoverished populations than previously thought, and antibiotic-resistant strains of different species and serotypes have emerged. Focusing on prevention of shigellosis could exert an immediate benefit first by substantially reducing the overall diarrhoea burden in the region and second by preventing the spread of panresistant Shigella strains. The heterogeneous distribution of Shigella species and serotypes suggest that multivalent or cross-protective Shigella vaccines will be needed to prevent shigellosis in Asia.

The inactivated EV71 vaccine elicited EV71-specific immune responses and protection against EV71-associated hand, foot, and mouth disease. (Funded by the National Basic Research Program and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01569581.).

This article is the series of methodology of clinical prediction model construction (total 16 sections of this methodology series). The first section mainly introduces the concept, current application status, construction methods and processes, classification of clinical prediction models, and the necessary conditions for conducting such researches and the problems currently faced. The second episode of these series mainly concentrates on the screening method in multivariate regression analysis. The third section mainly introduces the construction method of prediction models based on Logistic regression and Nomogram drawing. The fourth episode mainly concentrates on Cox proportional hazards regression model and Nomogram drawing. The fifth Section of the series mainly introduces the calculation method of C-Statistics in the logistic regression model. The sixth section mainly introduces two common calculation methods for C-Index in Cox regression based on R. The seventh section focuses on the principle and calculation methods of Net Reclassification Index (NRI) using R. The eighth section focuses on the principle and calculation methods of IDI (Integrated Discrimination Index) using R. The ninth section continues to explore the evaluation method of clinical utility after predictive model construction: Decision Curve Analysis. The tenth section is a supplement to the previous section and mainly introduces the Decision Curve Analysis of survival outcome data. The eleventh section mainly discusses the external validation method of Logistic regression model. The twelfth mainly discusses the in-depth evaluation of Cox regression model based on R, including calculating the concordance index of discrimination (C-index) in the validation data set and drawing the calibration curve. The thirteenth section mainly introduces how to deal with the survival data outcome using competitive risk model with R. The fourteenth section mainly introduces how to draw the nomogram of the competitive risk model with R. The fifteenth section of the series mainly discusses the identification of outliers and the interpolation of missing values. The sixteenth section of the series mainly introduced the Zhou et al. Clinical prediction models with R

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Little is known about the causes of enteric fever in Asia. Most cases are believed to be caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi and the remainder by S. Paratyphi A. We compared their incidences by using standardized methods from population-based studies in China, Indonesia, India, and Pakistan.

Objective We aimed to determine the burden of bacillary dysentery in China, its cross-regional variations, trends in morbidity and mortality, the causative bacterial species and antimicrobial resistance patterns. Methods We extracted and integrated governmental statistics and relevant medical literature published from 1991 to 2000. Data were also collected from one general hospital each for the six provinces and Jin-an district, Shanghai, representative of six geographical regions and a modern city. Findings In 2000, 0.8-1.7 million episodes of bacillary dysentery occurred of which 0.5 to 0.7 million were treated at health-care facilities and 0.15-0.20 million patients were hospitalized. The highest morbidity and mortality rates were among the youngest and oldest age groups. Bacillary dysentery peaked during the summer months. The major causative species was Shigella flexneri (86%) and the predominant S. flexneri serotype was 2a (80%). About 74-80% of Shigella isolates remained susceptible to fluorinated quinolones. Conclusion We conclude that while morbidity and mortality due to bacillary dysentery has decreased considerably in China in the past decade due to increasing access to affordable health care and antibiotics, a considerable burden exists among the youngest and oldest age groups and in regions with low economic development. We suggest that while a vaccine would be effective for short-and medium-term control of bacillary dysentery, improved water supply, sanitation, and hygiene are likely to be required for long-term control.Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2006;84:561-568.Voir page 567 le résumé en français. En la página 567 figura un resumen en español. IntroductionGlobally, morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoea has decreased from 4.6 million deaths in 1982 to 3.3 million in 1992 to 2.5 million in 2003.1-3 A review published in 1999 reported that bacillary dysentery caused by Shigella species (S. flexneri, S. sonnei, S. boydii, and S. dyse e enteriae) remains a major source of diarr r rhoea, especially in developing countries. It also reported that of the 164.7 million episodes of shigellosis (Shigellarrelated diarrhoea) occurring worldwide each year, 163.2 million were in developing countries; however, the review included sparse data from China. 5 Even so diarrhoeal diseases remain an important public health problem. A crossrsectional survey conducted in 1988 estimated that of the 84 million diarrhoeal episodes that ocr r curred in China annually, 25% affected children less than five years of age. The survey also found that Shigella is one of the principle etiologic organisms for diarrhoea.6 A live oral Shigella vaccine which was developed and produced in China in 1997 reportedly provides 60-70% protection against S. flexneri 2a and S. sonnei infections. 7A continuing analysis of the disease burden of bacillary dysentery would be required for effective treatment and prevention policies, health prioritization debates, and cost-benefit assessments to enable rational decisions on research, ...

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A universal rotavirus (RV) immunization program is a potentially cost-effective measure for preventing RV infection in China. However, the efficacy of the only licensed RV vaccine (Lanzhou lamb rotavirus vaccine, LLR), which is made by a domestic manufacturer, has not been proven by a properly designed clinical trial. In October 2011 to March 2012, to measure the potential protection provided by LLR, a case–control study nested in a population-based active diarrhea surveillance study of children <5 years of age was conducted in rural Zhengding county. During the study period, 308 episodes of diarrhea were identified as being caused by RV infection, resulting in an incidence rate of 48.0/1000 people/year. The predominant RV serotype was G3 (61.5%), followed by G1 (15.2%), and G9 (6.5%). Overall, a protection of 35.0% (95% confidence interval (CI), 13.0%–52.0%) was identified, and higher protection was found among moderate RV gastroenteritis cases caused by the serotype G3 (52.0% 95% CI: 2.0%–76.1%). A concurrently conducted case–control study comparing non-RV viral diarrheal cases with non-diarrheal controls in the same population found that the RV vaccine offered no protection against non-RV diarrhea. Even under a less ideal immunization schedule, the oral LLR conferred a certain level of protection against RV gastroenteritis. However, further studies are needed to understand the full characteristics of the LLR, including its efficacy when administered following the optimal regimen, the potential risk of inducing intussusception, and the direct and indirect protective effects of LLR.