Accurate evaluation of individual risk of intravenous immunoglobin (IVIG)-resistance is critical for adopting regimens for the first treatment and prevention of coronary artery lesions (CALs) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). Methods: The KD patients hospitalized in Chongqing Children’s Hospital, in west China, from October 2007 to December 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Data were collected and compared between IVIG-resistant group and IVIG-responsive group. The independent risk factors were determined using multivariate regression analysis. A new prediction model was built and compared with the previous models. Results: A total of 5277 subjects were studied and eight independent risk factors were identified including higher red blood cell distribution width (RDW), lower platelet count (PLT), lower percentage of lymphocyte (P-LYM), higher total bile acid (TBA), lower albumin, lower serum sodium level, higher degree of CALs (D-CALs) and younger age. The new predictive model showed an AUC of 0.74, sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 59%. For individual’s risk probability of IVIG-resistance, an equation was given. Conclusions: IVIG-resistance could be predicted by RDW, PLT, P-LYM, TBA, albumin, serum sodium level, D-CALs and age. The new model appeared to be superior to those previous models for KD population in Chongqing city.

Objective: Kawasaki disease (KD) is one of the most prevailing vasculitis among infants and young children, and has become the leading cause of acquired heart disease in childhood. Delayed diagnosis of KD can lead to serious cardiovascular complications. We sought to create a diagnostic model to help distinguish children with KD from children with other febrile illnesses [febrile controls (FCs)] to allow prompt treatment. Methods: Significant independent predictors were identified by applying multivariate logistic regression analyses. A new diagnostic model was constructed and compared with that from diagnostic tests created by other scholars. Results: Data from 10,367 patients were collected. Twelve independent predictors were determined: a lower percentage of monocytes (%MON), phosphorus, uric acid (UA), percentage of lymphocyte (%LYM), prealbumin, serum chloride, lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), aspartate aminotransferase: alanine transaminase (AST: ALT) ratio, higher level of globulin, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), platelet count (PLT), and younger age. The AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of the new model for cross-validation of the KD diagnosis was 0.906 ± 0.006, 86.0 ± 0.9%, and 80.5 ± 1.5%, respectively. An equation was presented to assess the risk of KD, which was further validated using KD ( n = 5,642) and incomplete KD ( n = 809) cohorts. Conclusions: Children with KD could be distinguished effectively from children with other febrile illnesses by documenting the age and measuring the level of %MON, phosphorus, UA, globulin, %LYM, prealbumin, GGT, AST:ALT ratio, serum chloride, LDH, and PLT. This new diagnostic model could be employed for the accurate diagnosis of KD.

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