The precipitation climate in the larger Tian Shan region of Central Asia is described in terms of the climatological seasonal moisture fluxes and background circulation based on the ERA-40 reanalysis data and a precipitation reanalysis. The study area is partitioned into (1) the Tarim river basin, (2) bordering regions of China, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, and (3) Northwestern China. Moisture supply to these areas is primarily due to the midlatitude westerlies with contributions from higher latitudes. In addition, moisture from the Indian Ocean is notably imported into the Tarim drainage area. Monthly interannual precipitation variability relates to the variability of hemispheric circulation patterns. Extreme precipitation above and below normal in Western China and Central Asia is analyzed using the standardized precipitation index. Related circulation composites show that, despite regional and seasonal differences, episodes of extreme and severe dryness are dominated by various upstream standing wave patterns from the North Atlantic to Central Asia. These features extend further downstream to the North Pacific. Non-symmetry between wet and dry composites is noted upstream and in regional moisture flux composites. © 2011 Springer-Verlag
The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phases 3, 5 and 6. Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, the representation of modes of variability, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, as well as the trends in dry months in the 20th century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the 20th century. The regional biases are larger than a climate-change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest to explore alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
Several studies show that the anomalous long-lasting Russian heat wave during the summer of 2010, linked to a long-persistent blocking high, appears mainly as a result of natural atmospheric variability. This study analyzes the large-scale flow structure based on the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) data (1989-2010). The anomalous long-lasting blocking high over western Russia including the heat wave occurs as an overlay of a set of anticyclonic contributions on different time scales. (i) A regime change in ENSO toward La Nina modulates the quasi-stationary wave structure in the boreal summer hemisphere supporting the eastern European blocking. The polar Arctic dipole mode is enhanced and shows a projection on the mean blocking high. (ii) Together with the quasi-stationary wave anomaly, the transient eddies maintain the long-lasting blocking. (iii) Three different pathways of wave action are identified on the intermediate time scale (similar to 10-60 days). One pathway commences over the eastern North Pacific and includes the polar Arctic region; another one runs more southward and crossing the North Atlantic, continues to eastern Europe; a third pathway southeast of the blocking high describes the downstream development over South Asia
Climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) potentially influences many climate parameters other than temperature including wind speed, cloudiness and precipitation. Temporal trends of surface wind speed at 71 stations above 2000 m above sea level in the TP are examined during 1980-2005. To uncover causes of observed trends in wind speed, relationships with surface temperature, a TP index and sunshine duration are also analysed. The TP index is calculated as the accumulated 500 hPa geopotential height above 5000 m over the region of 30°N-40°N, 75°E-105°E from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The annual mean wind speed patterns during 1980-2005 are similar to those in different seasons, with higher wind speeds in the northern and western parts of the TP. Highest mean wind speeds occur in spring and lowest in autumn. During 1980-2005, annual and seasonal mean wind speeds show statistically decreasing trends at most stations. The mean trend magnitude for annual mean wind speed is -0.24ms-1decade-1, with the maximum decline in spring (-0.29ms-1decade-1) and minimum in autumn (-0.19ms-1decade-1). Both annually and in different seasons, wind speed is significantly negatively correlated with mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and the TP index, but significantly positively correlated with sunshine duration. Wind speed trends fail to show a simple elevation dependency but speeds are positively correlated with meridional surface temperature/pressure gradients. Warming in the TP may weaken the latitudinal gradients of both regional temperature and surface pressure, thus altering the regional atmospheric circulation and accounting in part for the observed decline of wind speed. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society
ABSTRACT:Effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures on extreme dryness and wetness on the Tibetan plateau in summer are analysed using ERA-40 reanalysis and observed precipitation. The extreme cases of drought and wetness can be associated with circulation anomalies in the North Atlantic/European sector and wave trains bridging the Eurasian continent. Drought in Tibet reveals an intense high pressure anomaly over Scandinavia supported by a more south-west to north-east orientated North Atlantic stormtrack. This creates wave trains crossing Eurasia which, on their southward 'great circle route', reach south-eastern Asia where they modulate the flow north and east of the Tibetan plateau by an anticyclone-cyclone dipole suppressing moisture supply from the Bay of Bengal.Wetness in Tibet is characterised by a more zonally oriented cross Atlantic stormtrack creating a low pressure anomaly over central Europe and, associated with it, a northward shift of the sub-tropical westerly and tropical easterly jet; wave trains emerging from the North Atlantic on their equatorward route have now a higher chance to reach the sub-tropical jet entrance (instead of propagating further south). Then the wave trains are re-intensified and, passing the Mediterranean-Arabian Sea route to India, interact with the monsoon's western branch to lead to ample moisture supply for Tibet.Surface temperatures give indications for positive (negative) El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole episodes occurring in years of extreme and severe dryness (wetness) on the Tibetan plateau. A pronounced cold surface temperature anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic precedes and accompanies drought on the plateau.
On the basis of daily observations of 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin, the variability of drought and wetness has been analysed using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI, 1961–2010). The result shows an increasing trend in annual mean SPEI with a significant change in 1986. Although the frequency of moderate and severe droughts decreased after the change, the frequency of extreme drought events increased slightly. But different categories of wetness show a consistent increase in frequency. The return periods of drought and wetness prolonged and shortened, respectively, after 1986. Furthermore, composites of geopotential height and water vapour flux fields at 500 hPa are analyzed for extreme wet and dry months of the warm season (May to October) as well as for the warm seasons of the periods 1961 to 1986 and 1987 to 2010. The difference between composites of extreme wet and dry shows that the water vapour supply during wet events can be related to transports from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The midlatitude atmospheric circulation plays an important role by transporting moisture from the east into the Tarim River Basin; this is the main reason of the wetter condition in warm seasons after 1986 in the study region
Extratropical and tropical influences on Tibetan Plateau severe and extreme dry and wet summer months are investigated focussing on the large-scale circulation and using results of the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. A pre-industrial control run and scenario runs for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are considered. Tibetan Plateau precipitation in months of wetness and drought is related to atmospheric circulation anomalies in the North-Atlantic/European sector and to sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropics. Drought on the Tibetan Plateau is associated with a pronounced wave train bridging Eurasia from the North Atlantic to Asia. Increased transient eddy activity in the North Atlantic storm track has a more south-west to north-east orientation. This supports a high pressure anomaly over the eastern North Atlantic and Scandinavia which excites a cross Eurasian wave train reducing the moisture inflow to the Tibetan Plateau from the Arabian Sea. A concurrent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean increases the low level monsoonal westerlies deviating the moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal towards the Indochinese Peninsula and the Philippines. Wetness on the Tibetan Plateau is dominated by a cooling in the tropical oceans, whereas atmospheric flow is predominantly zonal in the extratropics of North America and Europe. Thus, moisture inflow can reach the Tibetan Plateau via the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the mid-latitude westerlies. Future scenarios show little change of atmospheric flow composites for wetness and dryness; the Tibetan Plateau droughts increase by 10% for an A1B-scenario, while extreme wet summer months are reduced by approximately 1%.
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