Analysis of genetic sequence data from the pandemic SARS Coronavirus 2 can provide 18 insights into epidemic origins, worldwide dispersal, and epidemiological history. With few 19 exceptions, genomic epidemiological analysis has focused on geographically distributed data sets 20 with few isolates in any given location. Here we report an analysis of 20 whole SARS-CoV 2 21 genomes from a single relatively small and geographically constrained outbreak in Weifang, 22 People's Republic of China. Using Bayesian model-based phylodynamic methods, we estimate the 23 reproduction number for the outbreak to be 2.6 (95% CI:1.5-5). We further estimate the number of 24 infections through time and compare these estimates to confirmed diagnoses by the Weifang 25 Centers for Disease Control. We find that these estimates are consistent with reported cases and 26 there is unlikely to be a large undiagnosed burden of infection over the period we studied.
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