Cancer occurs via an accumulation of somatic genomic alterations in a process of clonal evolution. There has been intensive study of potential causal mutations driving cancer development and progression. However, much recent evidence suggests that tumor evolution is normally driven by a variety of mechanisms of somatic hypermutability, known as mutator phenotypes, which act in different combinations or degrees in different cancers. Here we explore the question of how and to which degree different mutator phenotypes act in a cancer predict its future progression. We develop a computational paradigm using evolutionary tree inference (tumor phylogeny) algorithms to derive features quantifying single-tumor mutational preferences, followed by a machine learning framework to identify key features predictive of progression. We build phylogenies tracing the evolution of subclones of cells in tumor tissues using a variety of somatic genomic alterations, including single nucleotide variations, copy number alterations, and structural variations. We demonstrate that mutation preference features derived from the phylogenies are predictive of clinical outcomes of cancer progression -overall survival and disease-free survival -based on the analyses on breast invasive carcinoma, lung adenocarcinoma, and lung squamous cell carcinoma. We further show that mutational phenotypes have predictive power even after accounting for traditional clinical and driver-centric predictors of progression. These results confirm the power of mutational phenotypes as an independent class of predictive biomarkers and suggest a strategy for enhancing the predictive power of conventional clinical or driver-centric genomic features.
Cancer occurs via an accumulation of somatic genomic alterations in a process of clonal evolution. There has been intensive study of potential causal mutations driving cancer development and progression. However, much recent evidence suggests that tumor evolution is normally driven by a variety of mechanisms of somatic hypermutability, which act in different combinations or degrees in different cancers. These variations in mutability phenotypes are predictive of progression outcomes independent of the specific mutations they have produced to date. Here we explore the question of how and to what degree these differences in mutational phenotypes act in a cancer to predict its future progression. We develop a computational paradigm using evolutionary tree inference (tumor phylogeny) algorithms to derive features quantifying single-tumor mutational phenotypes, followed by a machine learning framework to identify key features predictive of progression. Analyses of breast invasive carcinoma and lung carcinoma demonstrate that a large fraction of the risk of future clinical outcomes of cancer progression—overall survival and disease-free survival—can be explained solely from mutational phenotype features derived from the phylogenetic analysis. We further show that mutational phenotypes have additional predictive power even after accounting for traditional clinical and driver gene-centric genomic predictors of progression. These results confirm the importance of mutational phenotypes in contributing to cancer progression risk and suggest strategies for enhancing the predictive power of conventional clinical data or driver-centric biomarkers.
The exon shuffling theory posits that intronic recombination creates new domain combinations, facilitating the evolution of novel protein function. This theory predicts that introns will be preferentially situated near domain boundaries. Many studies have sought evidence for exon shuffling by testing the correspondence between introns and domain boundaries against chance intron positioning. Here, we present an empirical investigation of how the choice of null model influences significance. Although genome-wide studies have used a uniform null model, exclusively, more realistic null models have been proposed for single gene studies. We extended these models for genome-wide analyses and applied them to 21 metazoan and fungal genomes. Our results show that compared with the other two models, the uniform model does not recapitulate genuine exon lengths, dramatically underestimates the probability of chance agreement, and overestimates the significance of intron-domain correspondence by as much as 100 orders of magnitude. Model choice had much greater impact on the assessment of exon shuffling in fungal genomes than in metazoa, leading to different evolutionary conclusions in seven of the 16 fungal genomes tested. Genome-wide studies that use this overly permissive null model may exaggerate the importance of exon shuffling as a general mechanism of multidomain evolution.
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