Previous studies on multi-model ensemble forecasting mainly focused on the weight allocation of each model, but did not discuss how to suppress the reduction of ensemble forecasting accuracy when adding poorer models. Based on a variant weight (VW) method and the equal weight (EW) method, this study explored this topic through theoretical and real case analyses. A theoretical proof is made, showing that this VW method can improve the forecasting accuracy of a multi-model ensemble, in the case of either the same models combination or adding an even worse model into the original multi-model ensemble, compared to the EW method. Comparative multi-model ensemble forecasting experiments against a real case between the VW and EW methods show that the forecasting accuracy of a multi-model ensemble applying the VW method is better than that of each individual model (including the model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The 2 m temperature forecasting applying the VW method is superior to that applying the EW method for all the multi-model ensembles. Both theoretical proof and numerical experiments show that an improved forecast, better than a best model, is generally possible.
Water vapor plays an important role in climate change and water cycling, but there are few water vapor products with both high spatial resolution and high accuracy that effectively monitor the change of water vapor. The high precision Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) is often used to calibrate the high spatial resolution Moderate−resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) PWV to produce new PWV product with high accuracy and high spatial resolution. In addition, the machine learning method has a good performance in modifying the accuracy of MODIS PWV. However, the accuracy improvement of different machine learning methods and different modeling timescale is different. In this article, we use three machine learning methods, namely, the Random Forest (RF), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), and Back−propagation Neural Network (BPNN) to calibrate MODIS PWV in 2019, at annual and monthly timescales. We also use the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) method for comparison. The root mean squares (RMSs) at the annual timescale with the three machine learning methods are 4.1 mm (BPNN), 3.3 mm (RF), and 3.9 mm (GRNN), and the average RMSs become 2.9 mm (BPNN), 2.8 mm (RF), and 2.5 mm (GRNN) at the monthly timescale. Those results are all better than the MLR method (5.0 mm at the annual timescale and 4.6 mm at the monthly timescale). When there is an obvious variation pattern in the training sample, the RF method can capture the pattern to achieve the best results since the RF achieves the best performance at the annual timescale. Dividing such samples into several sub−samples each having higher internal consistency could further improve the performance of machine learning methods, especially for the GRNN, since GRNN achieves the best performance at the monthly timescale, and the performance of those three machine learning methods at the monthly timescale is better than that of annual timescale. The spatial and temporal variation patterns of the RMS values are significantly weakened after the modeling by machine learning methods for both three methods.
Using the observational data and the forecast and reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) during 2015–2018, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the 2 m temperature forecast errors of ECMWF in China, as well as their attribution to upper-level circulation, are analyzed. Results show that positive 2 m temperature forecast errors mainly occur in northwestern, northern and northeastern China, and gradually increase from January to December. This kind of error is attributed to the circulation errors associated with the circumfluence of the low-level differential winds along the Mongolian Plateau, and influenced by the changes in the mid-latitude trough and ridge with the seasons. In contrast, the negative 2 m temperature forecast errors mainly occur in the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with the largest errors around March and October, and the smallest errors around June and December. This kind of error is associated with a series of cyclonic and anticyclonic differential circulations generated by the detouring of the mid-level differential winds along the terrain near the south side of the Plateau. The positions and intensity of these differential circulations are also influenced by the variation in the mid-level circulation with the seasons.
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