Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) analysis is critically important in providing guidance to the sustainable development strategies of the YarLung Tsangpo River Basin (YTRB) due to the conflicts among the ample water resources, low development level of society, and the fragile ecological environment. This study evaluated the scheduled developing mode of YTRB in the planning years from 2016 to 2030 with a WRCC system containing three components: a hydrological informatics modeling system (HIMS), water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) model, and an index evaluation system. The averaged WRCC index is 4.29, 1.19, and 0.06 for the planning years, and 2.61, 0.98, 0.05 for the baseline years for the three sub-basins. The water deficiency problem becomes more severe in the upper sub-basin and appears in the middle sub-basin with the WRCC index greater than 1, while the water resources are not fully utilized in the lower sub-basin in the planning years, with the WRCC index far less than 1. The GDP of the three sub-basins is greater in the planning years, with 2.25 × 108, 54.60 × 108, and 3.94 × 108 dollars year−1 than those in the baseline years with 1.97 × 108, 47.71 × 108, 3.43 × 108 dollars year−1. However, GDP per capita/cubic meter keeps decreasing due to the great population growth rate and non-enhanced water use efficiency. The sustainability index is 0.04, 0.23, and 0.47 in the planning years, which is lower than the 0.04, 0.31, and 0.50 in the baseline years. Therefore, the scheduled growth rates of the population, urbanization, and GDP are a developing mode with low sustainability and are not appropriate to be continued in the planning years. Further work is needed to identify a sustainable developing mode with a decreased population growth rate, enhanced water use efficiency in the economic system, and the optimized allocation of water resources distribution in the three sub-basins with hydraulic facilities.
Predictions in ungauged basins (PUB) has been always a focus of hydrological research. The problem presented by ungauged basins is how to reasonably estimate water resource availability. To solve the issues of data scale, this study combines field experiments and hydrological models to estimate freshwater availability in a typical ungauged sea island located in southeastern China. The free parameters in the hydrological model were derived from the point-scale rainfall-runoff experiments rather than calibration using river discharge observations. The rainfall-runoff experiments were performed on six sites covering 11 land cover types. Model validation at a sub-catchment showed that the combined method could successfully reproduce monthly streamflow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.82, correlation coefficient of 0.85, and flow volume error of 6.5%. The simulation results indicate high heterogeneity and distinct seasonal dynamics in freshwater availability across the entire island. This pioneering PUB study for Chinese islands could provide reference for planning and management of freshwater in a water shortage area.
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