Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows from land to sea in the Yangtze River basin were simulated for the period 1900-2010, by combining models for hydrology, nutrient input to surface water, and an in-stream retention. This study reveals that the basin-wide nutrient budget, delivery to surface water, and in-stream retention increased during this period. Since 2004, the Three Gorges Reservoir has contributed 5% and 7% of N and P basin-wide retention, respectively. With the dramatic rise in nutrient delivery, even this additional retention was insufficient to prevent an increase of riverine export from 337 Gg N yr and 58 Gg P yr (N:P molar ratio = 13) to 5896 Gg N yr and 381 Gg P yr (N:P molar ratio = 35) to the East China Sea and Yellow Sea (ECSYS). The midstream and upstream subbasins dominate the N and P exports to the ECSYS, respectively, due to various human activities along the river. Our spatially explicit nutrient source allocation can aid in the strategic targeting of nutrient reduction policies. We posit that these should focus on improving the agricultural fertilizer and manure use efficiency in the upstream and midstream and better urban wastewater management in the downstream subbasin.

As Chinese aquaculture production accounts for over half of the global aquaculture production and has increased by 50% since 2006, there is growing concern about eutrophication caused by aquaculture in China. This paper presents a model-based estimate of nutrient flows in China’s aquaculture system during 2006–2017 using provincial scale data, to spatially distribute nutrient loads with a 0.5° resolution. The results indicate that with the increase in fish and shellfish production from 30 to 47 million tonnes (Mt) during 2006–2017, the nitrogen (N) release increased from 1.0 to 1.6 Mt/year and that of phosphorus (P) from 0.1 to 0.2 Mt/year. Nutrient release from freshwater aquaculture was concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Hubei, and that from mariculture in Shandong, Fujian, and Guangdong. Aquaculture is an important strongly concentrated nutrient source in both freshwater and marine environments. Its nutrient release is >20% of total nutrient inputs to freshwater environments in some provinces, and nutrients from mariculture are comparable to river nutrient export to Chinese coastal seas. Aquaculture production and nutrient excretions are now comparable to those of livestock production systems in China and need to be accounted for when analyzing causes of eutrophication and harmful algal blooms and possible mitigation strategies.

Symptoms of eutrophication (including biodiversity loss, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia) are an increasing problem in Chinese seas. Nutrient enrichment is primarily caused by accelerated human activities that cause nutrient pollution of the aquatic environment. In this study, the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment-Global Nutrient Model (IMAGE-GNM) was used to estimate nitrogen inputs from river discharge, submarine fresh groundwater discharge, and mariculture, and TM5-FAst Scenario Screening Tool (TM5-FASST) for atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the three Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs, i.e., Yellow Sea/Bohai Sea, YS/BS; East China Sea, ECS; South China Sea, SCS) bordered by China and several other countries for the period 1970-2010. China's river nitrogen export was the largest nitrogen source in YS/BS and ECS. In SCS, however, China and other countries contributed equally and although decreasing, the proportion of natural sources remain considerable. The total nitrogen inputs to YS/BS (1.0 to 4.1 Tg year −1), ECS (1.3 to 5.5 Tg year −1), and SCS (2.1 to 5.8 Tg year −1) increased rapidly during 1970-2010. River export is dominated by agriculture; nitrogen inputs from atmospheric deposition and mariculture have been increasing rapidly in recent years. Considering only the coastal zone of the three LMEs, our results show that the total nitrogen inputs are strongly concentrated spatially in areas close to river mouths and those confined regions with mariculture production. To sustain the food production and economic growth in the coming decades, nitrogen inputs may increase further, depending on future eutrophication mitigation policies. Plain Language Summary Nitrogen is a limiting nutrient for plant production. Excessive nitrogen use in agriculture and discharge from wastewater is the primary causes of eutrophication in aquatic environments. Symptoms of eutrophication (including biodiversity loss, harmful algal blooms (HABs), and hypoxia) are an increasing problem in Chinese seas. Here we quantified the nitrogen inputs from river export, atmospheric deposition, submarine fresh groundwater discharge, and mariculture to the Yellow Sea/Bohai Sea (YS/BS), East China Sea (ECS), and South China Sea (SCS) bordered by China and other countries for the period 1970-2010. Nitrogen inputs increased rapidly, mainly due to increasing land-based sources (river export and atmospheric deposition), while nitrogen from mariculture started to increase recently. River export is dominated by agriculture with growing proportions of sewage and freshwater aquaculture. Nitrogen inputs were spatially concentrated and increased faster in Chinese coastal waters than in other countries. China's contribution to nitrogen pollution exceeded that of other countries in YS/BS and ECS, while China and other countries contributed equally in SCS. Nitrogen concentrations and HAB frequency in the seas seem to be correlated as both increased substantially since 1970s. Mitigation of nitrogen pollution is therefore urgent because human ac...

The three large marine ecosystems (LMEs) bordering China (Yellow Sea/Bohai Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea) have received excess nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the past decades with detrimental consequences for ecosystem functioning, such as increased productivity, loss of biodiversity, and proliferation of harmful algal blooms (HABs). N loading increased much faster than that of P. Here, we show that HABs in the three LMEs started to proliferate after the N:P molar ratio exceeded the threshold value of 25 in the 1980s. The mismatch of N and P inputs is not only related to differences in loads but also inherent to the differences in their biogeochemical cycles which more efficiently filter P than N in land- and waterscapes. Future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways show that high N:P ratios will persist for decades to come, even worsening in a future oriented toward sustainability, and indicate that HABs may be a persisting problem in China’s coastal waters. While efforts in agricultural systems are governed by the agronomic crop requirements and are not easy to manage with respect to N:P ratios, the separate collection of urine in urban and rural areas could contribute to decreases in both total nutrient loads and N:P ratios.

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