Empirical evidence for the response of soil carbon cycling to the combined effects of warming, drought and diversity loss is scarce. Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) plays a central role in regulating the flow of carbon through soil, yet how biotic and abiotic factors interact to drive it remains unclear. Here, we combine distinct community inocula (a biotic factor) with different temperature and moisture conditions (abiotic factors) to manipulate microbial diversity and community structure within a model soil. While community composition and diversity are the strongest predictors of CUE, abiotic factors modulated the relationship between diversity and CUE, with CUE being positively correlated with bacterial diversity only under high moisture. Altogether these results indicate that the diversity × ecosystem-function relationship can be impaired under non-favorable conditions in soils, and that to understand changes in soil C cycling we need to account for the multiple facets of global changes.

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Relationships between microbial genes and performance are often evaluated in the laboratory in pure cultures, with little validation in nature. Here, we show that genomic traits related to laboratory measurements of maximum growth potential failed to predict the growth rates of bacteria in unamended soil, but successfully predicted growth responses to resource pulses: growth increased with 16S rRNA gene copy number and declined with genome size after substrate addition to soils, responses that were repeated in four different ecosystems. Genome size best predicted growth rate in response to addition of glucose alone; adding ammonium with glucose weakened the relationship, and the relationship was absent in nutrient-replete pure cultures, consistent with the idea that reduced genome size is a mechanism of nutrient conservation. Our findings demonstrate that genomic traits of soil bacteria can map to their ecological performance in nature, but the mapping is poor under native soil conditions, where genomic traits related to stress tolerance may prove more predictive. These results remind that phenotype depends on environmental context, underscoring the importance of verifying proposed schemes of trait-based strategies through direct measurement of performance in nature, an important and currently missing foundation for translating microbial processes from genes to ecosystems.

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