Background
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis.
Results
Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Guangdong), northern (Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). We found spring as the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC = 0.8532).
Conclusions
These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and provinces can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.
Abstract. In today's world, islands have been hot spots for global tourists due to their unique natural landscapes and cultural environments. Thus, how to develop the island tourism sustainably becomes a worthy question to explore. So far, few studies discuss the island tourism from the perspective of system science. Based on the theory of dissipative structure, this paper analyzes the evolution and its dynamic mechanism of Chuanshan Archipelago tourism system with dividing the process into four stages. It finds that the evolutionary impetus comes from the nonlinear action and the coupling relationship among various elements of the self-organization and heter-organization in tourism system. During the course of evolution, the tourism system constantly fluctuates. Therefore, in order to avoid a path of decline, the nonlinear operating mechanism should be improved to constantly obtain a negative entropy and promote an order development of tourism system.
Aiming at the problem of the shortage of Guangdong coastal tourism industry's competitiveness, using grey system theory to analyse the grey correlation of influence factors, and then draw the conclusion of the grey correlation degree between various influence factors and coastal tourism revenues, furthermore put forward the promotion measures of the competitiveness of Guangdong coastal tourism industry.
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