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Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential risk factors and consequences of the failure. Then construct the Bow-tie model, use the quantitative analysis of Bayesian network to find the weak links in the system, and make a prediction of the control measures to reduce the rate of the accident. In order to deal with the uncertainty existing in the determination of the probability of basic events, fuzzy logic method is used. Results of a case study show that the most likely causes of natural gas pipeline leakage occurrence are parties ignore signage, implicit signage, overload, and design defect of auxiliaries. Once the leakage occurs, it is most likely to result in fire and explosion. Corresponding measures taken on time will reduce the disaster degree of accidents to the least extent.

Bat Algorithm (BA) is a swarm intelligence algorithm which has been intensively applied to solve academic and real life optimization problems. However, due to the lack of good balance between exploration and exploitation, BA sometimes fails at finding global optimum and is easily trapped into local optima. In order to overcome the premature problem and improve the local searching ability of Bat Algorithm for optimization problems, we propose an improved BA called OBMLBA. In the proposed algorithm, a modified search equation with more useful information from the search experiences is introduced to generate a candidate solution, and Lévy Flight random walk is incorporated with BA in order to avoid being trapped into local optima. Furthermore, the concept of opposition based learning (OBL) is embedded to BA to enhance the diversity and convergence capability. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, 16 benchmark functions have been employed. The results obtained by the experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of OBMLBA for global optimization problems. Comparisons with some other BA variants and other state-of-the-art algorithms have shown the proposed approach significantly improves the performance of BA. Performances of the proposed algorithm on large scale optimization problems and real world optimization problems are not discussed in the paper, and it will be studied in the future work.

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