Renewable energy (RE) utilization is expected to increase in the coming years due to its decreasing costs and the mounting socio-political pressure to decarbonize the world’s energy systems. On the other hand, lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are on track to hit the target 100 USD/kWh price in the next decade due to economy of scale and manufacturing process improvements, evident in the rise in Li-ion gigafactories. The forecast of RE and Li-ion technology costs is important for planning RE integration into existing energy systems. Previous cost predictions on Li-ion batteries were conducted using conventional learning curve models based on a single factor, such as either installed capacity or innovation activity. A two-stage learning curve model was recently investigated wherein mineral costs were taken as a factor for material cost to set the floor price, and material cost was a major factor for the battery pack price. However, these models resulted in the overestimation of future prices. In this work, the future prices of Li-ion nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery packs - a battery chemistry of choice in the electric vehicle and stationary grid storage markets - were projected up to year 2025 using multi-factor learning curve models. Among the generated models, the two-factor learning curve model has the most realistic and statistically sound results having learning rates of 21.18% for battery demand and 3.0% for innovation. By year 2024, the projected price would fall below the 100 USD/kWh industry benchmark battery pack price, consistent with most market research predictions. Techno-economic case studies on the microgrid applications of the forecasted prices of Li-ion NMC batteries were conducted. Results showed that the decrease in future prices of Li-ion NMC batteries would make 2020 and 2023 the best years to start investing in an optimum (solar photovoltaic + wind + diesel generator + Li-ion NMC) and 100% RE (solar photovoltaic + wind + Li-ion NMC) off-grid energy system, respectively. A hybrid grid-tied (solar photovoltaic + grid + Li-ion NMC) configuration is the best grid-tied energy system under the current net metering policy, with 2020 being the best year to deploy the investment.
Increased utilization of renewable energy (RE) resources is critical in achieving key climate goals by 2050. The intermittent nature of RE, especially solar and wind, however, poses reliability concerns to the utility grid. One way to address this problem is to harmonize the RE resources using spatio-temporal complementarity analysis. Two RE resources are said to be complementary if the lack of one is balanced by the abundance of the other, and vice versa. In this work, solar–wind complementarity was analyzed across the provinces of Kalinga and Apayao, Philippines, which are potential locations for harvesting RE as suggested by the Philippine Department of Energy. Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and wind speed data sets were obtained from the NASA POWER database and then studied using canonical correlation analysis (CCA), a multivariate statistical technique that finds maximum correlations between time series data. We modified the standard CCA to identify pairs of locations within the region of study with the highest solar–wind complementarity. Results show that the two RE resources exhibit balancing in the resulting locations. By identifying these locations, solar and wind resources in the Philippine islands can be integrated optimally and sustainably, leading to a more stable power and increased utility grid reliability.
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