Wind and solar energies present a time and space disparity that generally leads to a mismatch between the demand and the supply. To harvest their maximum potentials, one of the main challenges is the storage and transport of these energies. This challenge can be tackled by electrofuels, such as hydrogen, methane, and methanol. They offer three main advantages: compatibility with existing distribution networks or technologies of conversion, economical storage solution for high capacity, and ability to couple sectors (i.e., electricity to transport, to heat, or to industry). However, the level of contribution of electric-energy carriers is unknown. To assess their role in the future, we used whole-energy system modelling (EnergyScope Typical Days) to study the case of Belgium in 2050. This model is multi-energy and multi-sector. It optimises the design of the overall system to minimise its costs and emissions. Such a model relies on many parameters (e.g., price of natural gas, efficiency of heat pump) to represent as closely as possible the future energy system. However, these parameters can be highly uncertain, especially for long-term planning. Consequently, this work uses the polynomial chaos expansion method to integrate a global sensitivity analysis in order to highlight the influence of the parameters on the total cost of the system. The outcome of this analysis points out that, compared to the deterministic cost-optimum situation, the system cost, accounting for uncertainties, becomes higher (+17%) and twice more uncertain at carbon neutrality and that electrofuels are a major contribution to the uncertainty (up to 53% in the variation of the costs) due to their importance in the energy system and their high uncertainties, their higher price, and uncertainty.
The complexity of bottom-up energy system models has progressively grown to enhance the representativeness of the system under analysis. Among them, whole-energy system models aim at representing the energy resources, conversion technologies, and energy demands of regions (i.e., a country) in its entirety. Despite this effort leading to an increased number of conversion processes modeled, the typologies of the end-use demand have remained limited to three categories: electricity, heat, and transportation. A fourth category, herein addressed as the non-energy demand, has widely been neglected. Being associated with the production of chemicals (i.e., plastics and fertilizers), the non-energy demand represents 10% of the world’s total end-use demand. Its relevance becomes fundamental in analyses that define the optimal defossilization pathways of energy systems with high dependence on fossil resources. This contribution introduces a schematic representation of the conversion processes involved in the satisfaction of the non-energy demand. Through its implementation in a bottom-up whole-energy system model, it evaluates the impact of this additional end-use in the configuration of the optimal energy system. In this study, the Belgian energy system, characterized by a penetration of the chemical and the petrochemical industries up to 20% of its total end-use demand, is taken as a reference case. The transition to a defossilized energy system is enforced through a snapshot analysis with a progressively more restrictive emissions cap. The results emphasize the role of renewable carriers (i.e., methanol and ammonia) in the defossilization of the energy system, otherwise hindered when the non-energy demand is neglected. The 100% import of these carriers at the lowest emissions cap highlights the potential dependence of the country under analysis, with limited availability of renewable resources, from countries exporting renewable methanol and ammonia.
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