Abstract. Extreme hydro-meteorological events have become the focus of more and more studies in the last decade. Due to the complexity of the spatial pattern of changes in precipitation processes, it is still hard to establish a clear view of how precipitation has changed and how it will change in the future. In the present study, changes in extreme precipitation and streamflow processes in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China are investigated with several nonparametric methods, including one method (Mann-Kendall test) for detecting trend, and three methods (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Levene's test and quantile test) for detecting changes in probability distribution. It was shown that little change is observed in annual extreme precipitation in terms of various indices, but some significant changes are found in the precipitation processes on a monthly basis, which indicates that when detecting climate changes, besides annual indices, seasonal variations in extreme events should be considered as well. Despite of little change in annual extreme precipitation series, significant changes are detected in several annual extreme flood flow and low-flow series, mainly at the stations along the main channel of Dongjiang River, which are affected significantly by the operation of several major reservoirs. To assess the reliability of the results, the power of three non-parametric methods are assessed by Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results show that, while all three methods work well for detecting changes in two groups of data with large sample size (e.g., over 200 points in each group) and large differences in distribution parameters (e.g., over 100% increase of scale parameter in Gamma distribution), none of them are powerful enough for small data sets (e.g., less than 100 points) and small distribution parameter difference (e.g., 50% increase of scale parameter in Gamma distribution). The result of the present study raises the concern of the robustness of statistical change-detection methCorrespondence to: W. Wang (w.wang@126.com) ods, shows the necessity of combined use of different methods including both exploratory and quantitative statistical methods, and emphasizes the need of physically sound explanation when applying statistical test methods for detecting changes.
Abstract. Due to the heterogeneous nature of the land surface, spatial scaling is an inevitable issue in the development of land models coupled with low-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) for predicting land-atmosphere interactions and carbon-climate feedbacks. In this study, a simple spatial scaling algorithm is developed to correct errors in net primary productivity (NPP) estimates made at a coarse spatial resolution based on sub-pixel information of vegetation heterogeneity and surface topography. An eco-hydrological model BEPS-TerrainLab, which considers both vegetation and topographical effects on the vertical and lateral water flows and the carbon cycle, is used to simulate NPP at 30 m and 1 km resolutions for a 5700 km2 watershed with an elevation range from 518 m to 3767 m in the Qinling Mountain, Shanxi Province, China. Assuming that the NPP simulated at 30 m resolution represents the reality and that at 1 km resolution is subject to errors due to sub-pixel heterogeneity, a spatial scaling index (SSI) is developed to correct the coarse resolution NPP values pixel by pixel. The agreement between the NPP values at these two resolutions is improved considerably from R2 = 0.782 to R2 = 0.884 after the correction. The mean bias error (MBE) in NPP modelled at the 1 km resolution is reduced from 14.8 g C m−2 yr−1 to 4.8 g C m−2 yr−1 in comparison with NPP modelled at 30 m resolution, where the mean NPP is 668 g C m−2 yr−1. The range of spatial variations of NPP at 30 m resolution is larger than that at 1 km resolution. Land cover fraction is the most important vegetation factor to be considered in NPP spatial scaling, and slope is the most important topographical factor for NPP spatial scaling especially in mountainous areas, because of its influence on the lateral water redistribution, affecting water table, soil moisture and plant growth. Other factors including leaf area index (LAI) and elevation have small and additive effects on improving the spatial scaling between these two resolutions.
Abstract.A Hierarchal Bayesian model is presented for one season-ahead forecasts of summer rainfall and streamflow using exogenous climate variables for east central China. The model provides estimates of the posterior forecasted probability distribution for 12 rainfall and 2 streamflow stations considering parameter uncertainty, and cross-site correlation. The model has a multi-level structure with regression coefficients modeled from a common multi-variate normal distribution resulting in partial pooling of information across multiple stations and better representation of parameter and posterior distribution uncertainty. Covariance structure of the residuals across stations is explicitly modeled. Model performance is tested under leave-10-out cross-validation. Frequentist and Bayesian performance metrics used include receiver operating characteristic, reduction of error, coefficient of efficiency, rank probability skill scores, and coverage by posterior credible intervals. The ability of the model to reliably forecast season-ahead regional summer rainfall and streamflow offers potential for developing adaptive water risk management strategies.
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