Abstract:We describe a fecundity-hindcast model that incorporates Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) acute toxicity data, field studies of Arctic cod larval distribution and abundance, natural mortality estimates for Arctic cod eggs and larvae, and an oil spill fate model in Alaska Beaufort Sea. Three orders of magnitude of spill events (1000, 10 000, and 100 000 tons) were evaluated for both physically and chemically dispersed oil. Using worst-case assumptions in our model, a 100 000 ton spill of crude oil treated with dispersants resulted in 266 million m 3 of water that exceeded our acute toxicity threshold, compared to a volume of 71 million m 3 for a 100 000 ton spill not treated with dispersants, and resulted in exposure of about 2 million Arctic cod larvae remaining from an initial 87 million eggs. This represents the reproductive output of about 7300 adult females. Adult Arctic cod populations in the Alaska Beaufort number in the tens to hundreds of millions. The results show that even with an order of magnitude variation in exposure, the effect of dispersing a large oil spill on the regional cod population is expected to be insignificant (∼0.7%). The recent hiatus in Arctic oil and gas development affords an opportunity to acquire additional data to further strengthen this conclusion.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.