The German DEAL agreements between German universities and research institutions on the one side and Springer Nature and Wiley on the other side facilitate easy open access publishing for researchers located in Germany. We use a dataset of all publications in chemistry from 2016 to 2020 and apply a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the impact on eligible scientists' choice of publication outlet. We find that even in the short period following the conclusion of these DEAL agreements, publication patterns in the field of chemistry have changed, as eligible researchers have increased their publications in Wiley and Springer Nature journals at the cost of other journals. From that two related competition concerns emerge: First, academic libraries may be, at least in the long run, left with fewer funds and incentives to subscribe to non-DEAL journals published by smaller publishers or to fund open access publications in these journals. Secondly, eligible authors may prefer to publish in journals included in the DEAL agreements, thereby giving DEAL journals a competitive advantage over non-DEAL journals in attracting good papers. Given the two-sided market nature of the academic journal market, these effects may both further spur the concentration process in this market.
In 2019 and 2020, German research institutions and publishers Wiley and Springer Nature closed the so-called DEAL agreements to facilitate open access publishing for researchers with German affiliation. These researchers do not have to pay for publishing their articles open access in Wiley and Springer Nature journals, as libraries cover these fees collectively. We use all publications in chemistry from 2016 to 2020 to estimate the impact of the DEAL on eligible scientists' journal choice applying a difference-in-differences framework. Even in the short treatment period, publication patterns have changed. Eligible researchers have increased their publications in DEAL journals at the cost of other journals. Two competition concerns emerge: Authors may prefer to publish in DEAL journals, thereby creating a competitive advantage in attracting good papers. Libraries may be left with fewer funds and incentives to subscribe to or to fund open access in non-DEAL journals. As academic journals are twosided platforms, these effects may further spur concentration.
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