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Poland faces two great challenges in the field of environment and atmosphere protection: improving air quality, especially by reducing particulate matter (PM) emissions, and reducing relatively high greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this research was to investigate how the fuel and technological transformations in the power, road transport, and household and tertiary sectors aimed at reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Poland would affect air quality, human health, and the associated external costs. The study was conducted for 2050 while considering 2015 as the base year. Ambient PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm) concentration was used as a proxy air quality indicator. The analysis was based on decarbonization scenarios developed within the REFLEX Project (Analysis of the European energy system under the aspects of flexibility and technological progress). The three scenarios of the REFLEX Project focused on the reduction of CO2 emissions up to 2050 from various sectors, mainly by the means of fuel and technological switches. This also led to the changes in the emission levels of pollutants that directly affect air quality, which were calculated with the use of fuel- and technology-specific emission factors. Next, for each emission scenario, ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and others pollutants were calculated with the use of the Polyphemus—an Eulerian-type air quality modelling system. Subsequently, the health impact of population exposed to air pollution and associated external costs were calculated using the πESA (Platform for Integrated Energy System Analysis) platform. The health impacts considered were the number of years of life lost, restricted activity days, and number of chronic bronchitis cases. The results showed that the largest reductions in both greenhouse gas and PM emissions—and consequently improvements of air quality resulting in a decrease of negative impacts on human health and a decrease of external costs—can be achieved by the transformation of heat production in the household and tertiary sector. The results also showed that the decrease in PM2.5 emissions envisaged in the analyzed scenarios in 2050 will lead to a reduction in the number of lost years of life by about 35 thousand and an avoidance of external costs by EUR 2.4 billion.

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Energy systems face radical –almost revolutionary changes which, however, will be stretched over the long period. The critical factors influencing the future development of the Polish power sector are discussed in this paper. Development of intermittent energy supplies from renewable energy sources imposes a challenge on the entire power system and requires specific adaptations and responses from traditional generation units. Up to the present time they have been used to work in the stable mode while now they need more operational flexibility. The share of RES constantly increases. On one hand, this has a very positive environmental impact, but on the other it disturbs economics of classical generation units. Also liberalized electricity markets are impacted and the risks in power investments have increased. The capacity market could constitute a remedy, which will incentivise the investments necessary to fill the gap created by closing exhausted and inefficient plants. On the consumer side electromobility could change the demand, not only in quantity but also in terms of load profile. Climate policy tends to detriment coal based generation. For countries abundant in coal resources which make use of this cheap fuel, such as Poland, the question arises about its future role. Even in the most coal-supportive scenarios revised in this paper its relative share in electricity generation does not exceed 50% in 2050 while in others it rather goes much below 30%. .

The article shows the consumption of primary energy carriers in selected European Union (EU) countries, including Poland. The trend of consumption of primary energy carriers was compared with the global trend, which is different from that observed in the EU. The consumption of primary energy sources has been increasing steadily for many decades, due to the growth of the world population and the aspirations of developing countries to raise the standard of living of their citizens. In the EU, the opposite trend, i.e., a decrease in primary energy consumption, has been observed since 2007. This article presents tables and graphs showing these phenomena. The authors tried to answer the following questions: (a) What influences the decrease in demand for primary energy in highly developed countries? (b) Why the demand in less-developed countries is constantly growing? The trends in countries, such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Poland, i.e., countries with the most developed economies in the EU and the home country of the authors, were analyzed.

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