The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer's level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1) identification and analysis of influential factors, (2) development of a conceptual model, (3) structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4) model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5) risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs.Keywords: production cost, milk price, risk, dairy farmer, income ABSTRAK Harga susu yang diterima peternak dari koperasi saat ini belum sepenuhnya dapat menutupi biaya produksi. Padahal peternak di dalam menjalankan usahanya menghadapi berbagai risiko dan ketidakpastian. Risiko terbesar dalam rantai pasok susu terletak pada kegiatan di peternakan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk merumuskan model perhitungan harga susu di tingkat peternak berbasis risiko. Risiko yang terjadi di peternakan di antaranya risiko pembibitan sapi, sanitasi, pemeliharaan kesehatan sapi, manajemen pakan, pemerahan, dan penjualan susu. Lima tahapan utama dalam penyusunan model ini ialah (1) identifikasi dan analisis faktor yang berpengaruh, (2) membangun model konseptual, (3) analisis struktural dan besaran biaya produksi, (4) model perhitungan biaya produksi dengan faktor risiko, dan (5) model harga susu berbasis risiko. Penelitian ini membangun hubungan antara risiko di peternakan dengan biaya produksi yang harus dikeluarkan oleh peternak, seperti biaya penyusutan kandang dipengaruhi oleh risiko kontruksi kandang yang tidak memenuhi syarat dan biaya lainnya. Selain itu juga diperoleh formulasi perhitungan faktor penyesuaian risiko untuk variabel biaya produksi usaha sapi perah. Perbedaan biaya produksi dengan risiko dan biaya produksi total tanpa risiko sekitar 8% sampai dengan 10%. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa harga dasar susu yang diusulkan berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini pada kepemilikan ternak 3-4 ekor sapi berkisar Rp 4,250-Rp 4,350/...
The critical point of performance and risk supply chain in a dairy product agro-industries was found in the product’s perishable characteristics. Bacterial and antibiotic contaminations have been identified as the major risks. This risks arise from a series of activities strarting from farms, cooperatives and Milk Processing Industry that will affect the entire supply chain performance. This paper aimed to design performance and risk supply chain model for agroindustrial dairy product supply chain risks by using Fuzzy Associative Memories (FAMS) approach. The approach isused to translate a quantity that is expressed using the language (linguistic). The fuzzy logic system provides fourbasic elements, namely : (i) rule base; (ii) inference engine; (iii) fuzzification; (iv) defuzzification. There are three proposed components in the model, namely : (i) performance profile; (ii) risk profile and (iii) risk exposure, which were expressed in time, cost and quality. Theinitial stage began with the analysis of invetible exposure risk exposure,including analysis of environmental and configuration characteristics, as well as dairy agro-industries supply chain. The second stage wasanalysis of evitable exposure risk, while the third stage was to change, risk exposure into time, cost and quality performance units. The second stage generateds risk magnitude of risk as a function of probability andseverity, the two value that were measured with Fuzzy AssociativeMemories (FAMS). The Model, therefore showed the impact of emerging risks damage to the agro-industry supply chain, which could be measured and be minimized in order to improve the robustnesss of the supply chain.Keywords: Performance, risk, fuzzy, supply chain, dairy agroindustry ABSTRAKTitik kritis dari performansi dan risiko rantai pasok agroindustri susu terletak pada karakteristik produknya yang mudah rusak. Risiko tertinggi yang teridentifikasi pada rantai ini adalah risiko susu terkontaminasi bakteri dan antibiotik. Risiko ini muncul dari rangkaian aktivitas yang terjadi mulai dari peternakan, koperasi dan Industri Pengolahan Susu (IPS) yang akan mempengaruhi performasi rantai pasok keseluruhan. Paper ini bertujuan untuk merancang model performansi dan risiko rantai pasok agroindustri susu dengan menggunakan pendekatan Fuzzy Assosiated Memories (FAMs). Logika fuzzy digunakan untuk menerjemahkan suatu besaran yang diekspresikan menggunakan bahasa (linguistic). Secara umum dalam sistem logika fuzzy terdapat empat buah elemen dasar, yaitu: basis kaidah (rule base), mekanisme pengambilan keputusan (inference engine), proses fuzzifikasi (fuzzification) dan proses defuzzifikasi (defuzzification). Ada tiga komponen yang dipertimbangkan dalam rancangan model yaitu profil performansi, profil risiko dan eksposurrisiko dalam ukuran waktu, biaya dan kualitas. Tahap pertama dimulai dengan menganalisis eksposur risiko yang tidak terhindarkan yang meliputi analisis karakteristik lingkungan dan konfigurasi serta karakteristik rantai pasok agroindustri susu. Tahap kedua adalah menganalisis eksposure risiko yang dapat dihindari. Tahap ketiga adalah mengubah eksposur risiko ke dalam ukuran performansi waktu, biaya dan kualitas. Pada tahap kedua dihasilkan magnitude risiko, yang merupakan fungsi dari nilai probabilitas dan severity yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan Fuzzy Assosiated Memories (FAMs).Dengan model ini diharapkan dampak kerusakan dari risiko yang muncul pada rantai pasok agroindustri susu dapat terukur dan dapat diminimasi sehingga dapat meningkatkan ketangguhan (robustnes) dari rantai pasok.Kata kunci: Performansi, risiko, fuzzy, rantai pasok, agroindustri susu
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