Increasing knowledge about signal transduction pathways as drivers of cancer growth has elicited the development of "targeted drugs," which inhibit aberrant signaling pathways. They require a companion diagnostic test that identifies the tumor-driving pathway; however, currently available tests like estrogen receptor (ER) protein expression for hormonal treatment of breast cancer do not reliably predict therapy response, at least in part because they do not adequately assess functional pathway activity. We describe a novel approach to predict signaling pathway activity based on knowledge-based Bayesian computational models, which interpret quantitative transcriptome data as the functional output of an active signaling pathway, by using expression levels of transcriptional target genes. Following calibration on only a small number of cell lines or cohorts of patient data, they provide a reliable assessment of signaling pathway activity in tumors of different tissue origin. As proof of principle, models for the canonical Wnt and ER pathways are presented, including initial clinical validation on independent datasets from various cancer types. Cancer Res; 74(11); 2936-45. Ó2014 AACR.

The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) pathway is commonly activated in cancer. Tumors are potentially sensitive to PI3K pathway inhibitors, but reliable diagnostic tests that assess functional PI3K activity are lacking. Because PI3K pathway activity negatively regulates forkhead box-O (FOXO) transcription factor activity, FOXO target gene expression is inversely correlated with PI3K activity. A knowledge-based Bayesian computational model was developed to infer PI3K activity in cancer tissue samples from FOXO target gene mRNA levels and validated in cancer cell lines treated with PI3K inhibitors. However, applied to patient tissue samples, FOXO was often active in cancer types with expected active PI3K. SOD2 was differentially expressed between FOXO-active healthy and cancer tissue samples, indicating that cancer-associated cellular oxidative stress alternatively activated FOXO. To enable correct interpretation of active FOXO in cancer tissue, threshold levels for normal SOD2 expression in healthy tissue were defined above which FOXO activity is oxidative stress induced and below which PI3K regulated. In slow-growing luminal A breast cancer and low Gleason score prostate cancer, FOXO was active in a PI3K-regulated manner, indicating inactive PI3K. In aggressive luminal B, HER2, and basal breast cancer, FOXO was increasingly inactive or actively induced by oxidative stress, indicating PI3K activity. We provide a decision tree that facilitates functional PI3K pathway activity assessment in tissue samples from patients with cancer for therapy response prediction and prognosis.

Signal transduction pathways are important in physiology and pathophysiology. Targeted drugs aim at modifying pathogenic pathway activity, e.g., in cancer. Optimal treatment choice requires assays to measure pathway activity in individual patient tissue or cell samples. We developed a method enabling quantitative measurement of functional pathway activity based on Bayesian computational model inference of pathway activity from measurements of mRNA levels of target genes of the pathway-associated transcription factor. Oestrogen receptor, Wnt, and PI3K-FOXO pathway assays have been described previously. Here, we report model development for androgen receptor, Hedgehog, TGFβ, and NFκB pathway assays, biological validation on multiple cell types, and analysis of data from published clinical studies (multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, contact dermatitis, Ewing sarcoma, lymphoma, medulloblastoma, ependymoma, skin and prostate cancer). Multiple pathway analysis of clinical prostate cancer (PCa) studies showed increased AR activity in hyperplasia and primary PCa but variable AR activity in castrate resistant (CR) PCa, loss of TGFβ activity in PCa, increased Wnt activity in TMPRSS2:ERG fusion protein-positive PCa, active PI3K pathway in advanced PCa, and active PI3K and NFκB as potential hormonal resistance pathways. Potential value for future clinical practice includes disease subtyping and prediction and targeted therapy response prediction and monitoring.

Fixed-priority scheduling with deferred preemption (FPDS) has been proposed in the literature as a viable alternative to fixed-priority pre-emptive scheduling (FPPS), that obviates the need for non-trivial resource access protocols and reduces the cost of arbitrary preemptions. This paper shows that existing worst-case response time analysis of hard real-time tasks under FPDS, arbitrary phasing and relative deadlines at most equal to periods is pessimistic and/or optimistic. The same problem also arises for fixed-priority nonpre-emptive scheduling (FPNS), being a special case of FPDS. This paper provides a revised analysis, resolving the problems with the existing approaches. The analysis is based on known concepts of critical instant and busy period for FPPS. To accommodate for our scheduling model for FPDS, we need to slightly modify existing definitions of these concepts. The analysis assumes a continuous scheduling model, which is based on a partitioning of the timeline in a set of non-empty, right semi-open intervals. It is shown that the critical instant, longest busy period, and worst-case response time for a task are suprema rather than maxima for all tasks, except for the lowest priority task. Hence, that instant, period, and response time cannot be assumed for any task, except for the lowest priority task. Moreover, it is shown that the analysis is not uniform for all tasks, i.e. the analysis for the lowest priority task differs from the Real-Time Syst (2009) 42: 63-119 analysis of the other tasks. These anomalies for the lowest priority task are an immediate consequence of the fact that only the lowest priority task cannot be blocked. To build on earlier work, the worst-case response time analysis for FPDS is expressed in terms of known worst-case analysis results for FPPS. The paper includes pessimistic variants of the analysis, which are uniform for all tasks, illustrates the revised analysis for an advanced model for FPDS, where tasks are structured as flow graphs of subjobs rather than sequences, and shows that our analysis is sustainable.

Endocrine therapy is important for management of patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer; however, positive ER staining does not reliably predict therapy response. We assessed the potential to improve prediction of response to endocrine treatment of a novel test that quantifies functional ER pathway activity from mRNA levels of ER pathway-specific target genes. ER pathway activity was assessed on datasets from three neoadjuvant-treated ER-positive breast cancer patient cohorts: Edinburgh: 3-month letrozole, 55 pre-/2-week/posttreatment matched samples; TEAM IIa: 3-to 6-month exemestane, 49 pre-/28 posttreatment paired samples; and NEWEST: 16-week fulvestrant, 39 pretreatment samples. ER target gene mRNA levels were measured in fresh-frozen tissue (Edinburgh, NEWEST) with Affymetrix microarrays, and in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples (TEAM IIa) with qRT-PCR. Approximately one third of ER-positive patients had a functionally inactive ER pathway activity score (ERPAS), which was associated with a nonresponding status. Quantitative ERPAS decreased significantly upon therapy (P < 0.001 Edinburgh and TEAM IIa). Responders had a higher pretreatment ERPAS and a larger 2-week decrease in activity (P ¼ 0.02 Edinburgh). Progressive disease was associated with low baseline ERPAS (P ¼ 0.03 TEAM IIa; P ¼ 0.02 NEWEST), which did not decrease further during treatment (P ¼ 0.003 TEAM IIa). In contrast, the staining-based ER Allred score was not significantly associated with therapy response (P ¼ 0.2). The ERPAS identified a subgroup of ER-positive patients with a functionally inactive ER pathway associated with primary endocrine resistance. Results confirm the potential of measuring functional ER pathway activity to improve prediction of response and resistance to endocrine therapy.

Introduction:In this study, we report on initial efforts to discover putative biomarkers for differential diagnosis of a systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) versus sepsis; and different stages of sepsis. In addition, we also investigated whether there are proteins that can discriminate between patients who survived sepsis from those who did not.Materials and Methods:Our study group consisted of 16 patients, of which 6 died and 10 survived. We daily measured 28 plasma proteins, for the whole stay of the patients in the ICU.Results:We observed that metalloproteinases and sE-selectin play a role in the distinction between SIRS and sepsis, and that IL-1α, IP-10, sTNF-R2 and sFas appear to be indicative for the progression from sepsis to septic shock. A combined measurement of MMP-3, -10, IL-1α, IP-10, sIL-2R, sFas, sTNF-R1, sRAGE, GM-CSF, IL-1β and Eotaxin allows for a good separation of patients that survived from those that died (mortality prediction with a sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 86%). Correlation analysis suggests a novel interaction between IL-1α and IP-10.Conclusion:The marker panel is ready to be verified in a validation study with or without therapeutic intervention

Combined cellular and humoral host immune response determine the clinical course of a viral infection and effectiveness of vaccination, but currently the cellular immune response cannot be measured on simple blood samples. As functional activity of immune cells is determined by coordinated activity of signaling pathways, we developed mRNA-based JAK-STAT signaling pathway activity assays to quantitatively measure the cellular immune response on Affymetrix expression microarray data of various types of blood samples from virally infected patients (influenza, RSV, dengue, yellow fever, rotavirus) or vaccinated individuals, and to determine vaccine immunogenicity. JAK-STAT1/2 pathway activity was increased in blood samples of patients with viral, but not bacterial, infection and was higher in influenza compared to RSV-infected patients, reflecting known differences in immunogenicity. High JAK-STAT3 pathway activity was associated with more severe RSV infection. In contrast to inactivated influenza virus vaccine, live yellow fever vaccine did induce JAK-STAT1/2 pathway activity in blood samples, indicating superior immunogenicity. Normal (healthy) JAK-STAT1/2 pathway activity was established, enabling assay interpretation without the need for a reference sample. The JAK-STAT pathway assays enable measurement of cellular immune response for prognosis, therapy stratification, vaccine development, and clinical testing.

Fixed-priority scheduling with deferred preemption (FPDS)