Some recent research on fluvial processes suggests the idea that some hydrological variables, such as flood flows, are upper-bounded. However, most probability distributions that are currently employed in flood frequency analysis are unbounded to the right. This paper describes an exploratory study on the joint use of an upper-bounded probability distribution and non-systematic flood information, within a Bayesian framework. Accordingly, the current PMF maximum discharge appears as a reference value and a reasonable estimate of the upper-bound for maximum flows, despite the fact that PMF determination is not unequivocal and depends strongly on the available data. In the Bayesian context, the uncertainty on the PMF can be included into the analysis by considering an appropriate prior distribution for the maximum flows. In the sequence, systematic flood records, historical floods, and paleofloods can be included into a compound likelihood function which is then used to update the prior information on the upper-bound. By combining a prior distribution describing the uncertainties of PMF estimates along with various sources of flood data into a unified Bayesian approach, the expectation is to obtain improved estimates of the upper-bound. The application example was conducted with flood data from the American river basin, near the Folsom reservoir, in California, USA. The results show that it is possible to put together concepts that appear to be incompatible: the deterministic estimate of PMF, taken as a theoretical limit for floods, and the frequency analysis of maximum flows, with the inclusion of non-systematic data. As compared to conventional analysis, the combination of these two concepts within the logical context of Bayesian theory, contributes an advance towards more reliable estimates of extreme floods.Keywords Probable maximum flood Á Hydrologic extreme events Á Flood frequency Á Bayesian analysis List of symbols LB Lower-bounded floods as referring to the floods that are larger than a given low threshold LB UB Upper-bounded floods as referring to the floods that are smaller than a given high threshold UB DB Double-bounded floods as referring to the floods that are comprised within the discharge interval (LR, UR) EX Annual flood-peaks with exact values a Upper bound of the LN4 distribution eLower bound of the LN4 distribution r Y
The design process of urban stormwater systems incorporating BMPs involves more complexity unlike the design of classic drainage systems for which just the technique of pipes is likely to be used. This paper presents a simple decision aid methodology and an associated software (AvDren) concerning urban stormwater systems, devoted to the evaluation and the comparison of drainage scenarios using BMPs according to different technical, sanitary, social environmental and economical aspects. This kind of tool is particularly interesting so as to help the decision makers to select the appropriate alternative and to plan the investments especially for developing countries, with important sanitary problems and severe budget restrictions.
Microbiomes have highly important roles for ecosystem functioning and carry out key functions that support planetary health, including nutrient cycling, climate regulation, and water filtration. Microbiomes are also intimately associated with complex multicellular organisms such as humans, other animals, plants, and insects and perform crucial roles for the health of their hosts.
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