Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. The UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts under climate change. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change often rely solely on global climate model (GCM) projections following different emission scenarios. This may miss out low-probability events with significant impacts. As a means of exploring such events, physical climate storyline approaches aim to quantify physically coherent articulations of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis and analyses storylines based on changes to (1) precondition severity, (2) temporal drought sequence, and (3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that the maximum intensity, mean deficit, and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly influenced by its meteorological preconditions prior to drought inception, particularly for northern catchments at shorter timescales. The influence of progressively drier preconditions reflects both the spatial variation in drought preconditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. There are two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “third dry winter” storyline. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–1976) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–1993) shows that, for each storyline (including the climate change storylines), drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealised droughts.

Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify storylines of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis, and analyses counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence, and 3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions, particularly for northern catchments at shorter time scales. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought conditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a three dry winter scenario. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–76) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–93) shows that for each storyline, drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071-2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975-1999 (NSE: 0.65-0.8; r: 0.79-0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: -34% to +55% for RCP4.5, -2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: -60% to +228%, RCP8.5: -86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%).

Much research has been carried out on the possible impacts of climate change for UK river flows. Catchment and national-scale studies since the early 1990s are here categorized into four modelling approaches: “top-down” GCM (Global Climate Model)-driven and probabilistic approaches and “bottom-up” stylised and scenario-neutral approaches. Early studies followed a stylised approach with a small number of model experiments focused on system sensitivity. GCM-driven approaches dominate since the mid-1990s and are scenario-led and “top-down”, but which incur the cascade of uncertainty which results in a large amount of information that may not be conducive to decision-making. The emergence of probabilistic projections aims to incorporate probabilistic information in navigating climate model uncertainty but remained “top-down” with challenges over its practical use for water resources planning. The scenario-neutral approach has clear roots in the early stylised approach with the aim to explore plausible futures beyond climate model projections and system sensitivity. A synthesis of studies employing each approach shows that the magnitude and sign of change in different hydrological variables remain uncertain between different regions of the UK. Comparison between studies is difficult due to their methodological differences and consequently different choices along the impact modelling chain, and with a notable geographic bias in catchment selection in southeast England. Major limitations for each approach include barriers to decision-making from wide uncertainty ranges, limited consideration of high-impact outcomes, and challenges in their application in water resources planning. These challenges represent priorities for future research using new “hybrid” approaches to produce complementary information to “top down” projections within a more “bottom-up” framework. Exploratory modelling, robust decision-making and storylines are examples of new approaches that have emerged. Key to the emerging approaches identified is a need to combine different modelling approaches to tackle different sources of uncertainty according to the intended aims of individual applications.

<p>Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts threaten water resources availability and incur significant environmental and socio-economic consequences. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify “storylines” of how a singular event with significant impacts could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways from plausible changes to its causal factors under present and future climate. This study uses the 2010-2012 UK drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought, as a basis, to create counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence and 3) climate change. Model simulations are performed using the GR4J hydrological model and drought characteristics for each counterfactual storyline is calculated using the Standardized Streamflow Index at multiple accumulation periods.</p><p>The storylines show that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010-2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought characteristics and the influence of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology, in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “three dry winter” scenario. Application of the UKCP18 projections at four global warming levels explore the impacts of the drought in a warmer world. Drought conditions of the storylines could have matched and exceeded that experienced in past severe droughts, especially for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.</p>

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Abstract. The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including the latest drought declared in summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting of a large sample of plausible weather sequences, can be used to add value to existing approaches to water resources planning. In this study, the drivers of winter rainfall in the Greater Anglia region are investigated using the ECMWF SEAS5 hindcast dataset, which includes 2850 plausible winters across 25 ensemble members and 3 lead times. Four winter clusters were defined using the hindcast winters based on possible combinations of various atmospheric circulation indices (such as North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation). Using the 2022 drought as a case study, we demonstrate how storylines of the event could be created in autumn 2022 to provide an outlook of drought conditions and to explore plausible worst cases over winter 2022/23 and beyond. The winter clusters span a range of temperature and rainfall response in the Anglian region and represent circulation storylines that could have happened over winter 2022/23. Although winter 2022/23 has now passed, we aim to demonstrate the added value of this approach to provide outlooks during an ongoing event with a brief retrospective of how winter 2022/23 transpired. Storylines created from the hindcast winters were simulated using the GR6J catchment hydrological model and the groundwater level model Aquimod at selected catchments and boreholes in the Anglian region. Results show that drier than average winters characterised by predominantly NAO-/EA- and NAO+/EA- circulation patterns would result in the continuation of the drought with a high likelihood of below normal to low river flows across all selected catchments and boreholes by spring and summer 2023. Catchments in Norfolk are particularly vulnerable to a dry summer in 2023 as river flows are not estimated to recover to normal levels even with wet La Niña winters characterised predominantly by NAO-/EA+ and NAO+/EA+ circulation patterns due to insufficient rainfall to overcome previous dry conditions and the slow response nature of groundwater-dominated catchments. Storylines constructed in this way provide outlooks of ongoing events and supplement traditional weather forecasts to explore a wider range of plausible outcomes.