The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three‐pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.

A B S T R A C TRanaviruses are important pathogens of amphibians, reptiles and fish. To meet the need for an analytical method for generating normalised and comparable infection data for these diverse host species, two standard-curve based quantitative-PCR (qPCR) assays were developed enabling viral load estimation across these host groups. A viral qPCR targeting the major capsid protein (MCP) gene was developed which was specific to amphibianassociated ranaviruses with high analytical sensitivity (lower limit of detection: 4.23 plasmid standard copies per reaction) and high reproducibility across a wide dynamic range (coefficient of variation below 3.82% from 3 to 3 × 10 8 standard copies per reaction). The comparative sensitivity of the viral qPCR was 100% (n = 78) based on agreement with an established end-point PCR. Comparative specificity with the end-point PCR was also 100% (n = 94) using samples from sites with no history of ranavirus infection. To normalise viral quantities, a host qPCR was developed which targeted a single-copy, ultra-conserved non-coding element (UCNE) of vertebrates. Viral and host qPCRs were applied to track ranavirus growth in culture. The two assays offer a robust approach to viral load estimation and the host qPCR can be paired with assays targeting other pathogens to study infection burdens.

Variation among animals in their host-associated microbial communities is increasingly recognized as a key determinant of important life history traits including growth, metabolism, and resistance to disease. Quantitative estimates of the factors shaping the stability of host microbiomes over time at the individual level in non-model organisms are scarce. Addressing this gap in our knowledge is important, as variation among individuals in microbiome stability may represent temporal gain or loss of key microbial species and functions linked to host health and/or fitness. Here we use controlled experiments to investigate how both heterogeneity in microbial species richness of the environment and exposure to the emerging pathogen Ranavirus influence the structure and temporal dynamics of the skin microbiome in a vertebrate host, the European common frog (Rana temporaria). Our evidence suggests that altering the bacterial species richness of the environment drives divergent temporal microbiome dynamics of the amphibian skin. Exposure to ranavirus effects changes in skin microbiome structure irrespective of total microbial diversity, but individuals with higher pre-exposure skin microbiome diversity appeared to exhibit higher survival. Higher diversity skin microbiomes also appear less stable over time compared to lower diversity microbiomes, but stability of the 100 most abundant ("core") community members was similar irrespective of microbiome richness. Our study highlights the importance of extrinsic factors in determining the stability of host microbiomes over time, which may in turn have important consequences for the stability of host-microbe interactions and microbiome-fitness correlations.

Reports of severe disease outbreaks in amphibian communities in mainland Europe due to strains of the common midwife toad virus (CMTV)-like clade of Ranavirus are increasing and have created concern due to their considerable population impacts. In Great Britain, viruses in another clade of Ranavirus–frog virus 3 (FV3)-like—have caused marked declines of common frog (Rana temporaria) populations following likely recent virus introductions. The British public has been reporting mortality incidents to a citizen science project since 1992, with carcasses submitted for post-mortem examination, resulting in a long-term tissue archive spanning 25 years. We screened this archive for ranavirus (458 individuals from 228 incidents) using molecular methods and undertook preliminary genotyping of the ranaviruses detected. In total, ranavirus was detected in 90 individuals from 41 incidents focused in the north and south of England. The majority of detections involved common frogs (90%) but also another anuran, a caudate and a reptile. Most incidents were associated with FV3-like viruses but two, separated by 300 km and 16 years, involved CMTV-like viruses. These British CMTV-like viruses were more closely related to ranaviruses from mainland Europe than to each other and were estimated to have diverged at least 458 years ago. This evidence of a CMTV-like virus in Great Britain in 1995 represents the earliest confirmed case of a CMTV associated with amphibians and raises important questions about the history of ranavirus in Great Britain and the epidemiology of CMTV-like viruses. Despite biases present in the opportunistic sample used, this study also demonstrates the role of citizen science projects in generating resources for research and the value of maintaining long-term wildlife tissue archives.

Environmental heterogeneity is known to modulate the interactions between pathogens and hosts. However, the impact of environmental heterogeneity on the structure of host-associated microbial communities, and how these communities respond to pathogenic exposure remain poorly understood. Here we use an experimental framework to probe the links between environmental heterogeneity, skin microbiome structure and infection by the emerging pathogen Ranavirus in a vertebrate host, the European common frog (Rana temporaria). We provide evidence that environmental complexity directly influences the diversity and structure of the host skin microbiome, and that more diverse microbiomes are more resistant to perturbation associated with exposure to Ranavirus. Our data also indicate that host microbiome diversity covaries with survival following exposure to Ranavirus. Our study highlights the importance of extrinsic factors in driving host-pathogen dynamics in vertebrate hosts, and suggests that environment-mediated variation in the structure of the host microbiome may covary with observed differences in host susceptibility to disease in the wild.

Ranaviruses are agents of disease, mortality and population declines in ectothermic vertebrates and emergences have been repeatedly linked to human activities. Ranaviruses in the common midwife toad ranavirus lineage are emerging in Europe. They are known to be severe multi-host pathogens of amphibians and can also cause disease in reptiles. Recurrent outbreaks of ranavirus disease and mortality affecting three species have occurred at a small reservoir in northwest Spain but no data were available on occurrence of the pathogen in the other amphibian and reptile species present or at adjacent sites. We sampled nine species of amphibians and reptiles at the reservoir and nearby sites and screened for ranavirus presence using molecular methods. Our results show infection with ranavirus in all nine species, including first reports for Hyla molleri, Pelophylax perezi, Rana iberica, and Podarcis bocagei. We detected ranavirus in all four local sites and confirmed mass mortality incidents involving Lissotriton boscai and Triturus marmoratus were ongoing. The reservoir regularly hosts water sports tournaments and the risks of ranavirus dispersal through the translocation of contaminated equipment are discussed.

Increasing environmental temperatures are predicted to have increasingly severe and deleterious effects on biodiversity. For the most part, the impacts of a warming environment are presumed to be direct, however some predict increasingly severe disease epidemics, primarily from vector-borne pathogens, that will have the capacity to deplete host populations. Data to support this hypothesis are lacking. Here we describe increasing severity of ranavirosis driven by increasing temperature affecting a widely distributed amphibian host. Both in vitro and in vivo experiments showed that increasing environmental temperature leads to increased propagation of ranavirus and, in the latter, increased incidence of host infection and mortality. Also, temperature was shown to be a key determinant of disease dynamics in wild amphibians, raising the odds and severity of disease incidents. The direction of this effect was highly consistent in the context of other interacting variables such as shading around ponds. Projections based on future climate indicate that changes in seasonal weather in the UK will result in the increased incidence of severe cases of ranavirosis in amphibian populations that could affect recruitment. These complementary lines of evidence present a clear case of direct environmental modulation of a host-pathogen interaction and provide information for proposing mitigation actions.The interaction between hosts, pathogens and their shared environment shapes infectious disease outcomes and the invasiveness of pathogens 1 . Climatic conditions at a landscape scale represent a critical dimension of the host environment but also directly affect pathogen survival and transmission 1-3 . As such, climate plays an important role in the rate and pattern of invasions by emerging pathogens and will help to predict emergences under future climate change scenarios. Unsurprisingly, most research effort in these fields has focused on human

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