Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

Tidal wetlands produce long-term soil organic carbon (C) stocks. Thus for carbon accounting purposes, we need accurate and precise information on the magnitude and spatial distribution of those stocks. We assembled and analyzed an unprecedented soil core dataset, and tested three strategies for mapping carbon stocks: applying the average value from the synthesis to mapped tidal wetlands, applying models fit using empirical data and applied using soil, vegetation and salinity maps, and relying on independently generated soil carbon maps. Soil carbon stocks were far lower on average and varied less spatially and with depth than stocks calculated from available soils maps. Further, variation in carbon density was not well-predicted based on climate, salinity, vegetation, or soil classes. Instead, the assembled dataset showed that carbon density across the conterminous united states (CONUS) was normally distributed, with a predictable range of observations. We identified the simplest strategy, applying mean carbon density (27.0 kg C m−3), as the best performing strategy, and conservatively estimated that the top meter of CONUS tidal wetland soil contains 0.72 petagrams C. This strategy could provide standardization in CONUS tidal carbon accounting until such a time as modeling and mapping advancements can quantitatively improve accuracy and precision.

A field study of the tidal and seasonal variations in upland, shoreline, and nearshore hydrological processes associated with ground water discharge from the unconfined Columbia Aquifer was conducted. The study, performed along a tidal subestuary of the Chesapeake Bay, involved measurement of water table elevation, ground water discharge, potentiometric had differentials across the sediment‐water interface, and ground water salinity. Fresh ground water discharge rates calculated from the measured water table gradient using the Dupuit assumptions varied from 6.1 X 10‐3 to 3.8 X 10‐2 m3/day per m of shoreline during the study period, May 1994 to September 1995. Variation in discharge rates were associated with seasonal recharge patterns. Integrated total discharge rates based on seepage meter measurements decreased with distance offshore from a maximum of 3.3 L/m2 hr at the shoreline to 0.5 L/m2hr at 30 m offshore Maximum instantaneous discharge rates calculated from potentiometric head differentials were much higher than integrated discharge rates and ranged from 19.2 L/m2hr at 4.8 m offshore to 0.8 L/m2hr at 19.8 m offshore. Instantaneous discharge rates were inversely correlated to tidal elevation and fluctuated rapidly decreasing from 19.2 L/m2hr to 2.5 L/m2 hr during a several‐hour period. Seasonal variations in salinity patterns within the transition zone of the Columbia Aquifer were observed and indicated a dependence on fresh ground water discharge and surface water salinity/density gradient was observed within the transition zone. The gradient was created, in part, by the infiltration of surface water into tidally exposed sediments. Seasonal periods of low fresh ground water discharge and high surface water salinity were associate with intrusion of the surficial mixing zone landward while seasonal periods of high fresh ground water discharge and low surface water salinity were associated with a seaward movement of the mixing zone.

Surface water, groundwater, and groundwater discharge quality surveys were conducted in Cherrystone Inlet, on Virginia's Eastern Shore. Shallow groundwater below agricultural lields had nitrate concentrations significantly higher than inlet surface waters and shallow groundwater underlying forested land. This elevated nitrate groundwater discharged to adjacent surface waters. Nearshore discharge rates of water across the sedimentwater interface ranged from 0.02 to 3.69 litersm2•hr-1 during the surveys. The discharge was greatest nearshore at low tide periods, and decreased markedly with increasing distance offshore. Vertical hydraulic heads, Eh, and inorganic nitrogen flux in the sediments followed similar patterns. Nitrate was the predominant nitrogen species discharged nearshore adjacent to agricultural land use, changing to ammonium farther offshore. Sediment nitrogen fluxes were sufficient to cause observable impacts on surface water quality; nitrate concentrations were up to 20 times greater in areas of groundwater discharge than in the main stem inlet water. Based on DIN:DIP ratios, nitrogen contributions from direct groundwater discharge and tidal creek inputs appear to be of significant ecological importance. This groundwater discharge links land use activity and the quality of surface water, and therefore must be considered in selection of best management practices and water quality management strategies.

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