Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), a scientific, evidence-based analytical process that combines chemical and biological data to quantify the probability and potential impact of some defined risk, is used by regulatory agencies for decision-making. Thus, in tobacco product regulation, specifically in substantial equivalence (SE) evaluations, QRA can provide a useful, practical, and efficient approach to address questions that might arise regarding human health risk and potential influence on public health. In SE reporting, when differences in product characteristics may necessitate the determination of whether a new product raises different questions of public health, the results from QRA are a valuable metric. An approach for QRA in this context is discussed, which is modeled after the methodology for assessment of constituent mixtures by the US Environmental Protection Agency for environmental Superfund site assessment. Given the intent in both cases is an assessment of the public health impact resulting from the totality of exposure to a mixture of constituents, the application is appropriate. Although some uncertainties in the information incorporated may exist, relying on the most appropriate of the available data increases the confidence and decreases the uncertainty in the risk characterization using this data-driven methodology.
Menthol in cigarettes has been examined for its potential to affect smoking dependence, measured primarily as number of cigarettes smoked per day and time to first cigarette after waking; the ability to quit smoking constitutes an additional measure of dependence. Successful quitting among menthol compared to non-menthol cigarette smokers is difficult to determine from the literature, due in part to the various definitions of quitting used by researchers. Nevertheless, intervention and follow-up studies of smoking cessation treatments generally indicate no differences in quitting success among menthol compared to non-menthol smokers, while cross-sectional studies suggest some differences within race/ethnicity groups. The association between menthol cigarette use and likelihood of being a former versus current smoker was examined based on data from the National Health Interview Survey and Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Analyses stratified by race/ethnicity and limited to smokers who had quit at least one year prior to survey participation provided inconsistent results with regard to menthol cigarette use and quitting, both within surveys (i.e., comparing race/ethnicity groups) and between surveys (i.e., same race/ethnicity group across surveys). Evidence suggesting the existence or direction of an association between menthol in cigarettes and quitting depended on the data source.
A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model (Schroeter et al., 2011) was applied to simulate target tissue manganese (Mn) concentrations following occupational and environmental exposures. These estimates of target tissue Mn concentrations were compared to determine margins of safety (MOS) and to evaluate the biological relevance of applying safety factors to derive acceptable Mn air concentrations. Mn blood concentrations measured in occupational studies permitted verification of the human PBPK models, increasing confidence in the resulting estimates. Mn exposure was determined based on measured ambient air Mn concentrations and dietary data in Canada and the United States (US). Incorporating dietary and inhalation exposures into the models indicated that increases in target tissue concentrations above endogenous levels only begin to occur when humans are exposed to levels of Mn in ambient air (i.e. >10μg/m) that are far higher than those currently measured in Canada or the US. A MOS greater than three orders of magnitude was observed, indicating that current Mn air concentrations are far below concentrations that would be required to produce the target tissue Mn concentrations associated with subclinical neurological effects. This application of PBPK modeling for an essential element clearly demonstrates that the conventional application of default factors to "convert" an occupational exposure to an equivalent continuous environmental exposure, followed by the application of safety factors, is not appropriate in the case of Mn. PBPK modeling demonstrates that the relationship between ambient Mn exposures and dose-to-target tissue is not linear due to normal tissue background levels and homeostatic controls.
Though available evidence is relatively consistent in showing no additional health effects among smokers due to menthol in cigarettes, two studies reported conflicting results for stroke risk using different subsets of NHANES data. We investigated reasons for the differences in these reports by analyzing NHANES cycles conducted between 1999 and 2012, combined and in subsets. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from three different survey logistic regression models compare risk of reported stroke diagnoses among menthol and non-menthol cigarette smokers. Depending on timeframe, about 1150 to 8000 U.S. adults (aged ≥ 20 years) who smoked on ≥ 1 of the last 30 days had complete data for cigarette type and all covariates included in each model. Results were not much affected by which covariates were included in the models, but depended strongly on the NHANES cycles included in the analysis. Using NHANES 1999-2012 data combined, AORs and 95% CIs for stroke comparing menthol with non-menthol cigarette smokers were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.65, 1.37), 0.85 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.23) or 0.86 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.25). Collectively, findings illustrate the need for fully reporting research and analytical methods, especially when analyses are meant to develop evidence intended for regulatory decision-making.
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