Rates of molecular evolution vary over time and, hence, among lineages. In contrast, widely used methods for estimating divergence times from molecular sequence data assume constancy of rates. Therefore, methods for estimation of divergence times that incorporate rate variation are attractive. Improvements on a previously proposed Bayesian technique for divergence time estimation are described. New parameterization more effectively captures the phylogenetic structure of rate evolution on a tree. Fossil information and other evidence can now be included in Bayesian analyses in the form of constraints on divergence times. Simulation results demonstrate that the accuracy of divergence time estimation is substantially enhanced when constraints are included.

Estimation of evolutionary distances from coding sequences must take into account protein-level selection to avoid relative underestimation of longer evolutionary distances. Current modeling of selection via site-to-site rate heterogeneity generally neglects another aspect of selection, namely position-specific amino acid frequencies. These frequencies determine the maximum dissimilarity expected for highly diverged but functionally and structurally conserved sequences, and hence are crucial for estimating long distances. We introduce a codon-level model of coding sequence evolution in which position-specific amino acid frequencies are free parameters. In our implementation, these are estimated from an alignment using methods described previously. We use simulations to demonstrate the importance and feasibility of modeling such behavior; our model produces linear distance estimates over a wide range of distances, while several alternative models underestimate long distances relative to short distances. Site-to-site differences in rates, as well as synonymous/nonsynonymous and first/second/third-codon-position differences, arise as a natural consequence of the site-to-site differences in amino acid frequencies.

The variation in CDKN2A mutations for the four features across continents is consistent with the lower melanoma incidence rates in Europe and higher rates of sporadic melanoma in Australia. The lack of a pancreatic cancer-CDKN2A mutation relationship in Australia probably reflects the divergent spectrum of mutations in families from Australia versus those from North America and Europe. GenoMEL is exploring candidate host, genetic and/or environmental risk factors to better understand the variation observed.

GenoMEL, comprising major familial melanoma research groups from North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia has created the largest familial melanoma sample yet available to characterize mutations in the high-risk melanoma susceptibility genes CDKN2A/alternate reading frames (ARF), which encodes p16 and p14ARF, and CDK4 and to evaluate their relationship with pancreatic cancer (PC), neural system tumors (NST), and uveal melanoma (UM). This study included 466 families (2,137 patients) with at least three melanoma patients from 17 GenoMEL centers. Overall, 41% (n = 190) of families had mutations; most involved p16 (n = 178). Mutations in CDK4 (n = 5) and ARF (n = 7) occurred at similar frequencies (2-3%). There were striking differences in mutations across geographic locales. The proportion of families with the most frequent founder mutation(s) of each locale differed significantly across the seven regions (P = 0.0009). Single founder CDKN2A mutations were predominant in Sweden (p.R112_L113insR, 92% of family's mutations) and the Netherlands (c.225_243del19, 90% of family's mutations). France, Spain, and Italy had the same most frequent mutation (p.G101W). Similarly, Australia and United Kingdom had the same most common mutations (p.M53I, c.IVS2-105A>G, p.R24P, and p.L32P). As reported previously, there was a strong association between PC and CDKN2A mutations (P < 0.0001). This relationship differed by mutation. In contrast, there was little evidence for an association between CDKN2A mutations and NST (P = 0.52) or UM (P = 0.25). There was a marginally significant association between NST and ARF (P = 0.05). However, this particular evaluation had low power and requires confirmation. This GenoMEL study provides the most extensive characterization of mutations in high-risk melanoma susceptibility genes in families with three or more melanoma patients yet available. (Cancer Res 2006; 66(20): 9818-28)

Although CDKN2A is the most frequent high-risk melanoma susceptibility gene, the underlying genetic factors for most melanoma-prone families remain unknown. Using whole exome sequencing, we identified a rare variant that arose as a founder mutation in the telomere shelterin POT1 gene (g.7:124493086 C>T, Ser270Asn) in five unrelated melanoma-prone families from Romagna, Italy. Carriers of this variant had increased telomere length and elevated fragile telomeres suggesting that this variant perturbs telomere maintenance. Two additional rare POT1 variants were identified in all cases sequenced in two other Italian families, yielding a frequency of POT1 variants comparable to that of CDKN2A mutations in this population. These variants were not found in public databases or in 2,038 genotyped Italian controls. We also identified two rare recurrent POT1 variants in American and French familial melanoma cases. Our findings suggest that POT1 is a major susceptibility gene for familial melanoma in several populations.

We introduce a distance-based phylogeny reconstruction method called "weighted neighbor joining," or "Weighbor" for short. As in neighbor joining, two taxa are joined in each iteration; however, the Weighbor criterion for choosing a pair of taxa to join takes into account that errors in distance estimates are exponentially larger for longer distances. The criterion embodies a likelihood function on the distances, which are modeled as correlated Gaussian random variables with different means and variances, computed under a probabilistic model for sequence evolution. The Weighbor criterion consists of two terms, an additivity term and a positivity term, that quantify the implications of joining the pair. The first term evaluates deviations from additivity of the implied external branches, while the second term evaluates confidence that the implied internal branch has a positive branch length. Compared with maximum-likelihood phylogeny reconstruction, Weighbor is much faster, while building trees that are qualitatively and quantitatively similar. Weighbor appears to be relatively immune to the "long branches attract" and "long branch distracts" drawbacks observed with neighbor joining, BIONJ, and parsimony.

Background: The BRCA1-associated protein-1 (BAP1) tumor predisposition syndrome (BAP1-TPDS) is a hereditary tumor syndrome caused by germline pathogenic variants in BAP1 encoding a tumor suppressor associated with uveal melanoma, mesothelioma, cutaneous melanoma, renal cell carcinoma, and cutaneous BAP1-inactivated melanocytic tumors. However, the full spectrum of tumors associated with the syndrome is yet to be determined. Improved understanding of the BAP1-TPDS is crucial for appropriate clinical management of BAP1 germline variant carriers and their families, including genetic counseling and surveillance for new tumors. Methods: We collated germline variant status, tumor diagnoses, and information on BAP1 immunohistochemistry or loss of somatic heterozygosity on 106 published and 75 unpublished BAP1 germline variant-positive families worldwide to better characterize the genotypes and phenotypes associated with the BAP1-TPDS. Tumor spectrum and ages of onset were compared between missense and null variants. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The 181 families carried 140 unique BAP1 germline variants. The collated data confirmed the core tumor spectrum associated with the BAP1-TPDS and showed that some families carrying missense variants can exhibit this phenotype. A variety of noncore BAP1-TPDS -associated tumors were found in families of variant carriers. Median ages of onset of core tumor types were lower in null than missense variant carriers for all tumors combined (P < .001), mesothelioma (P < .001), cutaneous melanoma (P < .001), and nonmelanoma skin cancer (P < .001).

The source code to Handelis freely distributed on the Internet at http://www.biowiki.org/Handel under the terms of the GNU Public License (GPL, 2000, http://www.fsf.org./copyleft/gpl.html).