The study seeks to re-investigate the role of price, income and health awareness in the evolution of South African cigarette demand over the period 1996 to 2006. At first glance, rising cigarette prices appear to have played an important role in reducing cigarette consumption over the sample period, especially during the late 90s. But how dependent is the impact of price increases on general economic conditions and overall health awareness among smokers? Health awareness, in particular, has not received sufficient attention in the South African context, due to a lack of data. Previous estimates of price and income elasticities of cigarette demand are based on long annual time series data, which do not allow for changes in underlying tastes and preferences. The paper attempts to disentangle the forces of price, income, health awareness and policy intervention using a quarterly data set. In addition, the study also cautions against the upward bias in estimates derived from formal cigarette sales data - in the light of increasing illicit cigarette volumes in South Africa. Copyright (c) 2008 The Author. Journal compilation (c) Economic Society of South Africa 2008.

Trade is a critical component of economic growth in newly settled societies. This article tests the impact of ship traffic on the Cape economy using a time-series smoothing technique borrowed from the business cycle literature and employing an econometric procedure to test for long-run relationships. The results suggest a strong systematic co-movement between wheat production and ship traffic, with less evidence for wine production and stock-herding activities. While ship traffic created demand for wheat exports, the size of the co-movement provides evidence that ship traffic also stimulated local demand through secondary and tertiary sector activities, supporting the hypothesis that ship traffic acted as a catalyst for growth in the Cape economy.

The paper describes cyclicality in a range of local and international financial variables and their relation to cyclical behaviour in the South African real economy. Cycles are derived using a dating algorithm similar to that used to determine business cycle turning points and falls within the Burns-Mitchell tradition of business cycle analysis. Co-movement between phases in financial variables and similar phases in the business cycle are described using the concordance statistic, instead of the correlation statistic (which requires stationarity). This is a preliminary step in identifying financial variables that can act as leading indicators of economic activity. Copyright 2005 Economic Society of South Africa.

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The only reliable estimate of the number of ships that arrived in the Cape Colony was published by Beyers in 1929. Unfortunately, this data series has a number of restrictions. It only accounts for the number of ships arriving at the Cape during the period 1700-1793. It also does not distinguish between the types of ships used or compensate for the length of their stay. Using a new electronic data source detailing every ship that anchored in Table Bay during the existence of the Dutch East India Company, this paper provides new insights into the pattern of ship traffic fluctuations in the early Cape Colony. Historical evidence from this period supports the empirical results. While many gaps still remain, the new empirical evidence can be used in future research on this neglected period of South Africa's economic history.