The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

The characteristics of the main components of the water cycle over Equatorial Central Africa (ECA) were analysed using the 32-year period, spanning from 1968 to 2000, of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Censearch (NCEP-) reanalysis project database. A special emphasis was given to identifying the causes of annual and interannual variability of water vapor flux and precipitation recycling. The results suggest that the first maximum of moisture convergence, during the rainy season MAM, comes from upper level moisture flux, related to the north component of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ-N). The second, and greatest, maximum in SON is found to be a consequence of low level moisture advection from the Atlantic Ocean. AEJ-N also drive the seasonal spatial pattern of moisture flux. The interannual variability of moisture flux is contributed mainly by the low level moisture advected from the Atlantic Ocean, underlying its crucial role for the regional climate. Studying the recycling ratio in ECA as a whole shows a low annual cycle whereas subregional scale analysis reveals high amplitude of the seasonal variation. Seasonal variability of the spatial gradient of precipitation recycling is regulated by both moisture flux direction and strength. The annual cycles of recycling ratio in the North and the South of ECA are regulated by both moisture transport and evapotranspiration.

Africa lags the rest of the world in climate model development. This paper explores the potential for region-specific, process-based evaluation to promote progress in modeling and confidence assessments.

This paper investigates and characterizes the control mechanisms of the low-level circulation over west equatorial Africa (WEA) using four reanalysis datasets. Emphasis is placed on the contribution of the divergent and rotational circulation to the total flow. Additional focus is made on analyzing the zonal wind component, in order to gain insight into the processes that control the variability of the low-level westerlies (LLW) in the region. The results suggest that the control mechanisms differ north and south of 68N. In the north, the LLW are primarily a rotational flow forming part of the cyclonic circulation driven primarily by the heat low of the West African monsoon system. This northern branch of the LLW is well developed from June to August and disappears in December-February. South of 68N, the seasonal variability of the LLW is controlled by the heating contrast between cooling associated with subsidence over the ocean and heating over land regions largely south of the equator, where ascent prevails. The heating contrasts lead to a Walkertype circulation with development of LLW as its lower branch. Thus, evidence is presented that the LLW are driven by differential heating. This contrasts with the traditional conceptual view that the Saint Helena high is the primary driver of low-level circulation off the Atlantic Ocean to WEA. Forest cover in WEA may modulate the latent heating that helps to drive the differential heating and maintain the LLW, and this interaction should be the focus of further study.

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 • C and 2 • C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region's adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 • C and 2 • C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 • C and 2 • C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 • C and 2 • C, the 0.5 • C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March-May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 • C vs. 2 • C global warming levels.

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