IntroductionNon communicable diseases are the biggest cause of death worldwide. Beside mortality, these diseases also cause high rates of morbidity and disability. Their high prevalence is generally associated to multi-morbidity. Because they need costly prolonged treatment and care, non communicable diseases have social and economical consequences that affect individuals, households and the whole society. They raise the equity problem between and within countries.Methods and limitationsThis annotated bibliography is a systematic review on multimorbidy of non communicable diseases and health equity in WHO Eastern Mediterranean countries. Medline/PubMed, EMBASE and other sources were used to get peer reviewed papers dealing with the review theme. The words/strings used for search and inclusion criteria were: multimorbidity, comorbidity, equity, non communicable diseases, chronic diseases, WHO Eastern Mediterranean and Arab countries.Bibliography with annotationsAccording to the inclusion criteria, 26 papers were included in the present review. Generally, lack or paucity of publications was encountered in themes like headache, cancer and respiratory diseases. Of the 26 contributions selected, twelve dealt with comorbidity of depression and mental disorders with other chronic diseases. Another set of 11 publications was devoted to multimorbidity of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), hypertension, metabolic syndrome and obesity. Considering association of multimorbidity and social determinants, this review shows that female gender, low income, low level of education, old age and unemployed/retired are the most exposed to multimorbidity. It should also be stressed that, geographically, no contribution was issued from North African countries.Non communicable diseases are one of the biggest challenges facing health decision makers in WHO Eastern Mediterranean countries where the multidimensional transition is boosting increases in multimorbidity of depression and mental diseases, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer and respiratory diseases among the whole population but with the highest burden among the least disadvantaged individuals or subpopulations. Health ministries in WHO Eastern Mediterranean countries should pay a particular attention to the association between equity and multimorbidity and opt for cost effective strategies based on early diagnosis and sensitisation for healthy diet, physical activity, no smoking and no alcohol.

Introduction: Arab populations have many similarities and dissimilarities. They share culture, language and religion but they are also subject to economic, political and social differences. The purpose of this study is to understand the causes of the rising trend of diabetes prevalence in order to suggest efficient actions susceptible to reduce the burden of diabetes in the Arab world. Method: We use principal component analysis to illustrate similarities and differences between Arab countries according to four variables: 1) the prevalence of diabetes, 2) impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), 3) diabetes related deaths and 4) diabetes related expenditure per person. A linear regression is also used to study the correlation between human development index and diabetes prevalence. Results: Arab countries are mainly classified into three groups according to the diabetes comparative prevalence (high, medium and low) but other differences are seen in terms of diabetes-related mortality and diabetes related expenditure per person. We also investigate the correlation between the human development index (HDI) and diabetes comparative prevalence (R = 0.81). Conclusion: The alarming rising trend of diabetes prevalence in the Arab region constitutes a real challenge for heath decision makers. In order to alleviate the burden of diabetes, preventive strategies are needed, based essentially on sensitization for a more healthy diet with regular exercise but health authorities are also asked to provide populations with heathcare and early diagnosis to avoid the high burden caused by complications of diabetes.

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BackgroundBreast cancer is the first cancer in women both in incidence and mortality. The treatment of breast cancer benefited from the progress of chemotherapy and targeted therapies, but there was a parallel increase in treatment costs. Despite a relatively high incidence of many sites of cancer, so far, there is no national register for this disease in Morocco.The main goal of this paper is to estimate the total cost of chemotherapy in the early stages of breast cancer due to its frequency and the chances of patients being cured. This study provides health decision-makers with a first estimate of costs and the opportunity to achieve the optimal use of available data to estimate the needs of antimitotics and trastuzumab in Morocco.MethodWe start by evaluating the individual cost according to the therapeutic sub-groups, namely:1. Patients needing chemotherapy with only anthracycline-based therapy.2. Patients needing chemotherapy with both anthracycline and taxane but without trastuzumab.3. Patients needing trastuzumab in addition to chemotherapy.For each sub-group, the protocol of treatment is described, and the individual costs per unit, and for the whole cycle, are evaluated.Then we estimate the number of women suffering from breast cancer on the basis of two data bases available in Morocco.Finally, we calculate the total annual cost of treatment of breast cancer in Morocco.ResultsThe total cost of breast cancer in Morocco is given in Moroccan dirhams (MAD), the US dollar at the current exchange rate (MAD 10 = USD 1.30) and in international dollars or purchasing power parity (MAD 10 = PPP 1.95).The cost of a therapy with trastuzumab is 8.4 times the cost of a sequential chemotherapy combining anthracycline and taxane, and nearly 60 times the cost of chemotherapy based on anthracycline alone.Globally, between USD 13.3 million and USD 28.6 million need to be devoted every year by the Moroccan health authorities to treat women with localized breast cancer in keeping with international recommendations.DiscussionAccording to our estimation methods, the complete cost of adjuvant chemotherapy including trastuzumab will range from 1.3 to 2.4% of the global budget of the Moroccan Health Department (MAD 9.8 billion or USD 1.274 billion). Unfortunately, only one-third of the Moroccan population has healthcare insurance whereas for each patient the treatment with chemotherapy alone costs 1.15 times the annual minimum income (MAD 23,710 or USD 3,082), and treatment requiring both chemotherapy and trastuzumab costs 9.76 times the annual minimum income. For the tumour over expressing HER2Neu, we need to treat 25 women in order to save (cure) one woman: the calculated cost for one life saved is USD 663,000. The question is, is it cost-effective for an emerging country?ConclusionIn this paper we aimed at evaluating the total cost of chemotherapy in the early stages of breast cancer in order to provide health decision-makers with a first estimation and a good opportunity for the optimal use of available data for the needs of an...

Background: In the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region, nearly one million deaths are caused by cardio-vascular diseases every year. During the last decade, the number of deaths caused by stroke increased by 23%. Most cardiovascular diseases can be prevented by addressing behavioural risk factors such as tobacco use, alcohol, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, and metabolic risk factors like obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes and raised lipids. Methods: This is a systematic review on cerebrovascular diseases and associated risk factors in WHO Eastern Mediterranean countries. Medline, Science Direct, and other sources were used to get peer reviewed papers dealing with the review theme. The search was limited to publications between 1990 and 2013 (30th June). Results and Discussion: According to the inclusion criteria, 45 papers were included in the present review. The prevalence was found greater than 50% in 38 studies for hypertension, greater than 25% in 36 studies for diabetes, greater than 15% in 26 studies for smoking and greater than 25% in 19 studies for dyslipidemia. It was also indicated that

Worldwide, diabetes is affecting 370 million people, causing nearly five million deaths and absorbing more than 471 billion USD per year. Mathematical models have been developed to simulate, analyse and understand the dynamics of β-cells, insulin and glucose. In this paper, we consider the effect of genetic predisposition to diabetes on dynamics of β-cells, glucose and insulin. We assume that the β-cell dynamics is governed by the differential equation:

Due to its chronic nature with severe complications, diabetes needs costly prolonged treatment and care. The high economic burden of diabetes is particularly threatening low and middle income countries. Worldwide, studies have shown that the cost of diabetes per person is much higher than the per capita health expenditure. This study is the first to estimate the direct and indirect cost of diabetes in Morocco. The direct cost of diabetes was computed by assuming three scenarios of prices (low, medium and high) due to different prices of insulin, oral drugs and other items used in diabetes treatment and care. Indirect costs of diabetes were estimated by the lifetime forgone earnings caused by premature death and disability due to diabetes. The direct cost of diabetes in Morocco was estimated to be between US $0.47 and US $1.5 billion whereas the indirect cost was estimated to be around US $2 billion accounting for 57% of the total cost of diabetes under the high cost scenario, 69% under the medium scenario and 81% under the low cost scenario. The average per capita indirect cost was estimated to be US $1113, relatively higher than the direct cost of diabetes which was seen to vary from US$ 259 to US $830. The results yielded by this study were compared to those obtained by similar studies in different regions and countries of the world. As a conclusion, the findings of this study indicate a high economic burden of diabetes and stress the importance that Moroccan health decision makers should give to sensitisation, early diagnosis and treatment of diabetes especially with the crucial growing trend of diabetes prevalence.

Diabetes is a chronic disease with a huge and growing socioeconomic burden affecting individuals, families and the whole society. In this paper, we propose an optimal control approach modeling the evolution from pre-diabetes to diabetes with and without complications. We show the existence of an optimal control and then use a numerical implicit finite-difference method to monitor the size of population in each compartment. Our model shows that, using optimal control, the number of diabetics with and without complications can be significantly reduced in a period of 10 years.