SUMMARY In December, 2009, a rare sequence of earthquakes initiated within the weakly extended Western Rift of the East African Rift system in the Karonga province of northern Malawi, providing a unique opportunity to characterize active deformation associated with intrabasinal faults in an early-stage rift. We combine teleseismic and regional seismic recordings of the largest events, InSAR imagery of the primary sequence, and recordings of aftershocks from a temporary (4-month) local network of six seismometers to delineate the extent and geometry of faulting. The locations of ∼1900 aftershocks recorded between January and May 2010 are largely consistent with a west-dipping normal fault directly beneath Karonga as constrained by InSAR and CMT fault solutions. However, a substantial number of epicentres cluster in an east-dipping geometry in the central part of the study area, and additional west-dipping clusters can be discerned near the shore of Lake Malawi, particularly in the southern part of the study area. Given the extensive network of hanging wall faults mapped in the Karonga region on the surface and in seismic reflection images, the distribution of events is strongly suggestive of multiple faults interacting to produce the observed deformation, and the InSAR data permit this but do not require it. We propose that fault interaction contributed to the seismic moment release as a series of Mw 5-to-6 events instead of a normal main shock–aftershock sequence. We find the depth of fault slip during the main shocks constrained by InSAR peaks at less than 6 km, while the majority of recorded aftershocks are deeper than 6 km. This depth discrepancy appears to be robust and may be explained by fault interaction. Structural complexities associated with fault interaction may have limited the extent of coseismic slip during the main shocks, which increased stress deeper than the coseismic slip zone on the primary fault and synthetic faults to the east, causing the energetic aftershock series. There is no evidence of deformation at the Rungwe volcanic province ∼50 km north of the earthquake sequence between 2007 and 2010, consistent with previous interpretations of no significant magmatic contribution during the sequence.

No abstract

Surge-type glaciers typically undergo cyclical flow instability due to mass accumulation; however, some recent glacier surges have caused irreversible ice loss in a short period. At Vavilov Ice Cap, Russia, surge-like behavior initiated in 2013 and by spring 2019 the ice cap had lost 9.5 Gt of ice (11% mass of the entire basin). Using time series of surface elevation and glacier velocity derived from satellite optical and synthetic-aperture radar imagery, we identify a shift of flow pattern starting in 2017 when shear margins formed within the grounded marine piedmont fan. Multiple summer speedups correlate with warmer summers during 2015-2019 and suggest that surface melt may access the subglacial environment. Force balance analysis and examination of the Péclet number show that glacier thinning propagated upstream in 2016-2017, and diffusion became a significant dynamic response to thinning perturbations. Our results suggest that the glacier has entered a new ice stream-like regime. Plain Language SummaryA glacier surge is a sudden speedup of glacier flow coinciding with a large advance of the ice front. Some glaciers surge periodically every 10-100 years, and so surge mechanism is thought to be independent of climate change. However, some recent surges have evacuated so much ice that another surge is unlikely to occur in the same place again. A glacier surge at the Vavilov Ice Cap, Russia, is one of these cases. Since 2013, the glacier has drained more than 11% of the ice basin (9.5 Gt) into the ocean. After the initial surge in 2013, the glacier still retains fast flow at around 1.8 km/year, an unusually high and long-lasting speed for a glacier surge. To understand the future of the surge, we use satellite images to calculate surface elevations and ice speeds, and analyze their change over time for the glacier. The results reveal that the glacier now physically behaves more like an "ice stream," a stream of fast-flowing ice within an ice sheet, which can probably flow at high speed for a long time and drain ice efficiently. This is the first documented case of an ice stream-like feature ever being formed.

Franz Josef Land (FJL) in the Russian Arctic, is one of the fastest-warming regions in the Arctic but the glaciers there have not contributed significantly to sea level in the past. We analyze ice surface elevation data derived from satellite stereo imagery (WorldView and SPOT), radar altimetry (CryoSat-2), and a

Abstract. Basal conditions directly control the glacier sliding rate and the dynamic discharge of ice. Recent glacier destabilization events indicate that some marine-terminating glaciers quickly respond to lubricated beds with increased flow speed, but the underlying physics, especially how this vulnerability relates to glacier geometry and flow characteristics, remains unclear. This paper presents a 1D physical framework for glacier dynamic vulnerability assuming sudden basal lubrication as an initial perturbation. In this new model, two quantities determine the scale and the areal extent of the subsequent thinning and acceleration after the bed is lubricated: Péclet number (Pe) and the product of glacier speed and thickness gradient (dubbed J0 in this study). To validate the model, this paper calculates Pe and J0 using multi-sourced data from 1996 to 1998 for outlet glaciers in the Greenland ice sheet and Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, and compares the results with the glacier speed change during 1996/1998–2018. Glaciers with lower Pe and J0 are more likely to accelerate during this 20-year span than those with higher Pe and J0, which matches the model prediction. A combined factor of ice thickness, surface slope, and initial flow speed physically determines how much and how fast glaciers respond to lubricated beds in terms of speed, elevation, and terminus change.