Objectives. To examine 47 years of US urban and rural mortality trends at the county level, controlling for effects of education, income, poverty, and race. Methods. We obtained (1) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER (Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research) data (1970–2016) on 104 million deaths; (2) US Census data on education, poverty, and race; and (3) Bureau of Economic Analysis data on income. We calculated ordinary least square regression models, including interaction models, for each year. We graphed standardized parameter estimates for 47 years. Results. Rural–urban mortality disparities increased from the mid-1980s through 2016. We found education, race, and rurality to be strong predictors; we found strong interactions between percentage poverty and percentage rural, indicating that the largest penalty was in high-poverty, rural counties. Conclusions. The rural–urban mortality disparity was persistent, growing, and large when compared to other place-based disparities. The penalty had evolved into a high-poverty, rural penalty that rivaled the effects of education and exceeded the effects of race by 2016. Public Health Implications. Targeting public health programs that focus on high-poverty, rural locales is a promising strategy for addressing disparities in mortality.
A 2-decade long trend in mortality disparities existed in all rural classifications, but the penalty was not distributed evenly. This constitutes an important public health problem. Research should target the slow rates of improvement in mortality in the rural United States as an area of concern.
The nonmetropolitan mortality penalty results in an estimated 40 201 excessive US deaths per year, deaths that would not occur if nonmetropolitan and metropolitan residents died at the same rate. We explored the underlying causes of the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty by examining variation in cause of death. Declines in heart disease and cancer death rates in metropolitan areas drive the nonmetropolitan mortality penalty. Future work should explore why the top causes of death are higher in nonmetropolitan areas than they are in metropolitan areas.
We discovered an emerging non-metropolitan mortality penalty by contrasting 37 years of age-adjusted mortality rates for metropolitan versus nonmetropolitan US counties. During the 1980s, annual metropolitan-nonmetropolitan differences averaged 6.2 excess deaths per 100,000 nonmetropolitan population, or approximately 3600 excess deaths; however, by 2000 to 2004, the difference had increased more than 10 times to average 71.7 excess deaths, or approximately 35,000 excess deaths. We recommend that research be undertaken to evaluate and utilize our preliminary findings of an emerging US nonmetropolitan mortality penalty.
The rural mortality penalty is evident in race-specific mortality trends over time, with an added disadvantage in black mortality. The rate of mortality improvement for rural blacks and whites lags behind their same-race, urban counterparts, creating a diverging gap in race-specific mortality trends in rural America.
An increase in noncommunicable disease (NCD) in India has been attributed to an epidemiologic transition whereby, due to urbanization, there is an increase in traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors such as obesity. Accumulated biomarker data on the "Asian Indian phenotype" identify central obesity, which occurs at a lower body mass index (BMI), as a particularly potent risk factor in Asian Indians. A revised WHO case definition for obesity in India [BMI (in kg/m(2)) >25] has identified an obesity epidemic that exceeds 30% in some cities and rivals that in Western nations. This review summarizes 2 key lines of evidence: 1) the emergence of an obesity epidemic in urban and rural India and its contribution to the NCD burden and 2) the role of a "nutrition transition" in decreasing the whole plant food content of diets in India and increasing risk of obesity and NCDs. We then present new epidemiologic evidence from Asian Indians enrolled in the Adventist Health Study 2 that raises the possibility of how specific whole plant foods (eg, nuts) in a vegetarian dietary pattern could potentially prevent obesity and NCDs in a target population of >1 billion persons.
We explored how place shapes mortality by examining 35 consecutive years of US mortality data. Mapping age-adjusted county mortality rates showed both persistent temporal and spatial clustering of high and low mortality rates. Counties with high mortality rates and counties with low mortality rates both experienced younger population out-migration, had economic decline, and were predominantly rural. These mortality patterns have important implications for proper research model specification and for health resource allocation policies.
This study examines race- and income-based disparities in cancer risks from air toxics in Cancer Alley, LA, USA. Risk estimates were obtained from the 2005 National Air Toxics Assessment and socioeconomic and race data from the 2005 American Community Survey, both at the census tract level. Disparities were assessed using spatially weighted ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and quantile regression (QR) for five major air toxics, each with cancer risk greater than 10−6. Spatial OLS results showed that disparities in cancer risks were significant: People in low-income tracts bore a cumulative risk 12% more than those in high-income tracts (p < 0.05), and those in black-dominant areas 16% more than in white-dominant areas (p < 0.01). Formaldehyde and benzene were the two largest contributors to the disparities. Contributions from emission sources to disparities varied by compound. Spatial QR analyses showed that magnitude of disparity became larger at the high end of exposure range, indicating worsened disparity in the poorest and most highly concentrated black areas. Cancer risk of air toxics not only disproportionately affects socioeconomically disadvantaged and racial minority communities, but there is a gradient effect within these groups with poorer and higher minority concentrated segments being more affected than their counterparts. Risk reduction strategies should target emission sources, risk driver chemicals, and especially the disadvantaged neighborhoods.
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