Photovoltaic power has great volatility and intermittency due to environmental factors. Forecasting photovoltaic power is of great significance to ensure the safe and economical operation of distribution network. This paper proposes a novel approach to forecast short-term photovoltaic power based on a gated recurrent unit (GRU) network. Firstly, the Pearson coefficient is used to extract the main features that affect photovoltaic power output at the next moment, and qualitatively analyze the relationship between the historical photovoltaic power and the future photovoltaic power output. Secondly, the K-means method is utilized to divide training sets into several groups based on the similarities of each feature, and then GRU network training is applied to each group. The output of each GRU network is averaged to obtain the photovoltaic power output at the next moment. The case study shows that the proposed approach can effectively consider the influence of features and historical photovoltaic power on the future photovoltaic power output, and has higher accuracy than the traditional methods.
The daily load profiles modeling is of great significance for the economic operation and stability analysis of the distribution network. In this paper, a flow-based generative network is proposed to model daily load profiles of the distribution network. Firstly, the real samples are used to train a series of reversible functions that map the probability distribution of real samples to the prior distribution. Then, the new daily load profiles are generated by taking the random number obeying the Gaussian distribution as the input data of these reversible functions. Compared with existing methods such as explicit density models, the proposed approach does not need to assume the probability distribution of real samples, and can be used to model different loads only by adjusting the structure and parameters. The simulation results show that the proposed approach not only fits the probability distribution of real samples well, but also accurately captures the spatial-temporal correlation of daily load profiles. The daily load profiles with specific characteristics can be obtained by simply classification.INDEX TERMS Daily load profiles, distribution network, generative network. BIRGITTE BAK-JENSEN (Senior Member, IEEE) received the M.Sc. degree in electrical engineering and the Ph.D. degree in modeling of high voltage components from the
Although the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in distribution networks can improve the energy saving and emission reduction effects, its random and uncertain nature limits the ability of distribution networks to accept the load of EVs. To this end, establishing a load profile model of EV charging stations accurately and reasonably is of great significance to the planning, operation and scheduling of power system. Traditional generation methods for EV load profiles rely too much on experience, and need to set up a power load probability distribution in advance. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for load profiles of EV generation using a variational automatic encoder. Firstly, an encoder composed of deep convolution networks and a decoder composed of transposed convolution networks are trained using the original load profiles. Then, the new load profiles are obtained by decoding the random number which obeys a normal distribution. The simulation results show that EV load profiles generated by the deep convolution variational auto-encoder can not only retain the temporal correlation and probability distribution nature of the original load profiles, but also have a good restorative effect on the time distribution and fluctuation nature of the original power load.
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