Wind power forecasting (WPF) is imperative to the control and dispatch of the power grid. Firstly, an ultra-short-term prediction method based on multilayer bidirectional gated recurrent unit (Bi-GRU) and fully connected (FC) layer is proposed. The layers of Bi-GRU extract the temporal feature information of wind power and meteorological data, and the FC layer predicts wind power by changing dimensions to match the output vector. Furthermore, a transfer learning (TL) strategy is utilized to establish the prediction model of a target wind farm with fewer data and less training time based on the source wind farm. The proposed method is validated on two wind farms located in China and the results prove its superior prediction performance compared with other approaches.
Improving the accuracy of PV power prediction is conducive to PV participation in economic dispatch and power market transactions in the distribution network, as well as safe dispatch and operation of the grid. Considering that the selection of highly correlated historical data can improve the accuracy of PV power prediction, this study proposes an integrated PV power prediction method based on a multi-resolution similarity consideration that considers both trend similarity and detail similarity. Firstly, using irradiance as the similarity variable, similar-days were selected using grey correlation analysis to form a set of similar data to control the similarity, with the overall trend of the day to be predicted at a macro level. Using irradiance to calculate the similarity at each specific point in time via Euclidean distance, similar-times were identified to form another set of similar data to consider the degree of similarity in detail. The above approach enables the selection of similarity data for both resolutions. Then, a 1DCNN-LSTM prediction model that considers the feature correlation of different variables and the temporal dependence of a single variable was proposed. Three important features were selected by a random forest model as inputs to the prediction model, and two similar data training models with different resolutions were used to generate a photovoltaic power prediction model based on similar-days and similar-times. Ultimately, the learning of the two predictions integrated with LightGBM compensate for each other, generating highly accurate predictions that combine the advantages of multi-resolution similarity considerations. Actual operation data of a PV power station was used for verification. The simulation results show that the prediction effect of ensemble learning was better than that of the single 1DCNN-LSTM model. The proposed method was compared with other commonly used PV power prediction models. In the data case of this study, it was found that the proposed method reduced the prediction error rate by 1.48%, 11.4%, and 6.45%, compared to the LSTM, CNN, and BP, respectively. Experiments show that model prediction results considering the selection of similar data at multiple resolutions can provide more extensive information to an ensemble learner and reduce the deviation in model predictions. Therefore, the proposed method can provide a reference for PV integration into the grid and participation in market-based electricity trading, which is of great significance.
Aiming at the stochastic dispatch problem brought by wind power, the expected model of wind power considering the errors of power prediction is established according to stochastic programming theory. And the calculation steps based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and genetic algorithm are proposed. An IEEE 30-bus example with wind farms is given to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method. The result shows that the stochastic dispatch method based expected value model can quantify the uncertainty caused by the prediction error of wind power well and optimize the expected value of wind power accommodation. It plays a positive role in improving dispatching level and promoting wind power accommodation.
In order to promote the wind monitoring accuracy and provide a quantitative planning method for met mast layout in practical projects, this paper proposes a two-stage layout method for met mast based on discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO) zoning and micro quantitative siting. Firstly, according to the wind turbines layout, rotational empirical orthogonal function and hierarchical clustering methods are used to preliminarily determine zoning number. Considering the geographical proximity of wind turbines and the correlation of wind speed, an optimal macro zoning model of wind farm based on improved DPSO is established. Then, combined with the grid screening method and optimal layout evaluation index, a micro quantitative siting method of met mast is proposed. Finally, the rationality and efficiency of macro zoning method based on improved DPSO, as well as the objectivity and standardization of micro quantitative siting, are verified by an actual wind farm.
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