Electrification
of transportation offers clear national energy
security benefits but unclear climate benefits. With the current heterogeneity
of grid electricity mix in China, greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of
battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary dramatically with location.
Currently, compared to baseline conventional gasoline vehicles, BEVs
in north and northeastern Chinese provinces have very modest (∼10–20%)
well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG benefits, whereas BEVs in southern provinces
have substantial benefits (∼50%). With the expected transition
to a more renewable electricity mix documented here, regional effects
will largely disappear and the benefits of BEVs will be substantial
(∼60–70% lower than current internal combustion engine
vehicles (ICEVs) and ∼10–40% lower than 2030 advanced
hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)) across the whole of China by 2030.
GHG emissions from BEVs in Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing,
and Pearl River Delta) and United States cities and regions (New York;
Washington, DC; Chicago; New England; Texas; and California) in 2015
and 2030 are evaluated and compared. BEVs in Chinese cities will still
have substantially higher WTW GHG emissions than those in New York,
New England, and California in 2030.
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