We thank two anonymous reviewers and Shang-Ping Xie for very helpful comments on earlier versions of the manuscript.
The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change.
Humans have utilized the Mesoamerican Reef (MAR) for millennia but the effects of prehistorical and historical fishing on this ecosystem remain understudied. To assess the long-term coupling of reef ecosystem and human dynamics in this region, we tracked trends in the structure and functioning of lagoonal reefs within the Belizean portion of the MAR using fish teeth fossils and sediment accumulation rates within reef sediment cores. We then paired this with a timeline of demographic and cultural changes in this region’s human populations. The ∼1,300-year timeline encompassed in the core record shows that declines in the relative abundance and accumulation rate of teeth from parrotfish, a key reef herbivore, occurred at all three reef sites and began between ∼1500 and 1800 AD depending on site and metric of abundance. A causality analysis showed that parrotfish relative abundance had a positive causal effect on reef accretion rates, a proxy of coral growth, reconfirming the important role of these fish in reef ecosystem functioning. The timing of initial declines in parrotfish teeth occurred during a time of relatively low human population density in Belize. However, declines were synchronous with cultural and demographic upheaval resulting from European colonization of the New World. The more recent declines at these sites (∼1800 AD) occurred in tandem with increased subsistence fishing on reefs by multiple immigrant groups, a pattern that was likely necessitated by the establishment of an import economy controlled by a small group of land-owning European elites. These long-term trends from the paleoecological record reveal that current parrotfish abundances in central Belize are well below their pre-European contact peaks and that increased fishing pressure on parrotfish post-contact has likely caused a decline in reef accretion rates. The origins of reef degradation in the Belizean portion of the MAR began hundreds of years before the onset of modern declines resulting from the combined effects of local human disturbances and climate change.
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