The Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model, which predicts the current value of a time series based upon its previous values as well as the current and past values of multiple driving (exogenous) series, has been studied for decades. Despite the fact that various NARX models have been developed, few of them can capture the long-term temporal dependencies appropriately and select the relevant driving series to make predictions. In this paper, we propose a dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network (DA-RNN) to address these two issues. In the first stage, we introduce an input attention mechanism to adaptively extract relevant driving series (a.k.a., input features) at each time step by referring to the previous encoder hidden state. In the second stage, we use a temporal attention mechanism to select relevant encoder hidden states across all time steps. With this dual-stage attention scheme, our model can not only make predictions effectively, but can also be easily interpreted. Thorough empirical studies based upon the SML 2010 dataset and the NASDAQ 100 Stock dataset demonstrate that the DA-RNN can outperform state-of-the-art methods for time series prediction.
Nowadays, multivariate time series data are increasingly collected in various real world systems, e.g., power plants, wearable devices, etc. Anomaly detection and diagnosis in multivariate time series refer to identifying abnormal status in certain time steps and pinpointing the root causes. Building such a system, however, is challenging since it not only requires to capture the temporal dependency in each time series, but also need encode the inter-correlations between different pairs of time series. In addition, the system should be robust to noise and provide operators with different levels of anomaly scores based upon the severity of different incidents. Despite the fact that a number of unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms have been developed, few of them can jointly address these challenges. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Scale Convolutional Recurrent Encoder-Decoder (MSCRED), to perform anomaly detection and diagnosis in multivariate time series data. Specifically, MSCRED first constructs multi-scale (resolution) signature matrices to characterize multiple levels of the system statuses in different time steps. Subsequently, given the signature matrices, a convolutional encoder is employed to encode the inter-sensor (time series) correlations and an attention based Convolutional Long-Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network is developed to capture the temporal patterns. Finally, based upon the feature maps which encode the inter-sensor correlations and temporal information, a convolutional decoder is used to reconstruct the input signature matrices and the residual signature matrices are further utilized to detect and diagnose anomalies. Extensive empirical studies based on a synthetic dataset and a real power plant dataset demonstrate that MSCRED can outperform state-ofthe-art baseline methods.
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