Regime shifts in ecology are characterised by major, often abrupt changes in ecosystem structure and functioning in response to one or more driving variables, or pressures. Changes in the provision of ecosystem services are a potential outcome. Despite the current combination of rapidly increasing pressures on what are often highly important socio‐ecological systems, the resilience of lakes in the warm tropics to human perturbation is far less well understood than those at higher latitudes. This paper focuses on evidence of aquatic ecosystem change from a cluster of three deep, freshwater, volcanic crater lakes (Yambo, Mohicap, and Sampaloc) at low altitude on the island of Luzon, Philippines. The lakes support different intensities of aquaculture, an important livelihood but also a driver of poor water quality throughout tropical Asia. Measured and monitored climate and water quality data, in addition to sedimentary evidence from sediment cores collected from the three study lakes, were used to determine the magnitude and trajectory of changes in lake water quality. Sediment cores were radiometrically dated and analysed for organic matter, spheroidal carbonaceous particles, and diatom remains. Diatom data were zoned numerically using cluster analysis. Diatom remains were also used to infer past variations in pH and possible relationships between potential driving climatic variables (temperature and rainfall). Diatom data sets were explored using detrended component analysis and principle component analysis. Despite differences in intensity of aquaculture, a common trajectory and timing of a potential regime shift, characterised by a replacement of benthic with planktonic diatoms and an increase in diatom accumulation rates from the early to mid‐1980s, is evident, and attests a low threshold for disturbance effects. A predominantly planktonic diatom flora has persisted even after recent improvements in environmental quality. The potential new regime may be less resilient and more susceptible to harmful algal blooms, abrupt expansions of anoxic conditions, and periodic mass fish kills when compared with its former state. The research further highlights the sensitivity of freshwater ecosystems in the warm tropics to disturbance pressures, and the risks to livelihoods, ecosystem services, and sustainable development.

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Understanding how lakes respond to changes in nutrient loading along a productivity gradient can help identify key drivers of aquatic change, thereby allowing appropriate mitigation strategies to be developed. Physical, chemical and biological water column measurements combined with long-term water monitoring data for six closely located crater lakes, in Southeast Asia, were compared to assess the response of lakes along a productivity gradient equating to a transect of increasing aquaculture intensity. Increasing chlorophyll a (phytoplankton biomass) in the upper waters appeared to modify the thermocline depth and light availability causing a shift from a deep chlorophyll maximum at low aquaculture intensity to the emergence of algal dead zones lower in the water column with high aquaculture intensity. High phosphorus loading and light limitation from enhanced algal biomass, associated with high aquaculture intensity, exacerbated nitrogen drawdown, leading to the prevalence of potentially nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. Seasonal overturn during the cooler season resulted in low dissolved oxygen concentrations in the epilimnion, potential harmful algal blooms, a reduction in the habitable depth for fish and ultimately increased mortality amongst farmed fish.

Aim: Determine the extent to which remote, high-altitude (Afroalpine) aquatic ecosystems in tropical Africa have been impacted by global and regional-scale environmental change processes. Location: Two volcanic crater lakes (Bisoke and Muhavura) in the Afroalpine zone, Albertine (Western) Rift, central Africa. Methods: Sediment cores were collected from Bisoke and Muhavura lakes and dated using radiometric techniques. A range of sediment-based proxies was extracted from the cores and quantified. Sedimentary data were subjected to statistical analyses that contributed to the identification of influential environmental variables and their effects on diatom assemblages, the determination of variations in spatial beta diversity and estimates of the rate of compositional turnover over the last c. 1,200 years. Results: Sediments from the two sites provide evidence of the sensitivity of remote, Afroalpine aquatic ecosystems to perturbation. Climate variability has been a major driver of ecological change, particularly at Bisoke Lake, throughout the c. 1,200year-long record, while Muhavura Lake has been directly impacted by and recovered from at least one volcanic eruption during this time. The effects of climatic warming from the mid-to late 19th century and especially from the late 20th century, possibly accentuated by atmospheric deposition-driven nutrient enrichment, appear increasingly in lockstep. Effects include changes in diatom community composition, increased productivity and compositional turnover, and biotic homogenization (reduced spatial beta diversity) between the two sites. Main conclusions: The two Afroalpine sites record changes in atmospheric conditions and their effects on diatom assemblage composition, particularly over the last c. 150 years. Drivers of these changes have the potential to disrupt ecosystems at lower altitudes in the Albertine Rift, including biodiverse areas of forest, and across tropical Africa more widely. K E Y W O R D S Afroalpine, atmospheric deposition, biotic homogenization, climate change, eutrophication, pollution | 2099 MCGLYNN et aL.