Using the symmetric and asymmetric specifications of the pooled mean group estimator, we attempted to scrutinise the possibility of the J-curve effect in the case of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In addition to both real effective exchange rate changes and nominal effective exchange rate changes, the possible impact of domestic and foreign demand pressures on the trade balance is also estimated. Incorporating a quarterly data set spanning from 2000Q1 to 2020Q2, the results based on the symmetric and asymmetric model establish no evidence of the J-curve phenomenon. However, when asymmetric possibilities are considered, appreciation is found to deteriorate the trade balance relatively by a greater magnitude whereas the impact of currency depreciation is insignificant. In addition, no asymmetric evidence has been reported concerning the effect of domestic and foreign demand. However, a hike in the former deteriorated the trade balance whereas an increase in the latter improved it in both linear and non-linear frameworks. JEL Codes: F4, F41, F42
The present study investigates trade balance determinants in post-liberalization India from 1991 to 2020. The main aim of this study is to test the validity of the J-curve and Marshal-Lerner condition and examine the impact of other related macroeconomic variables, including foreign income, exchange rate, domestic prices, and domestic demand on the country’s trade balance. To achieve this objective, bounds tests and error correction model within asymmetric and symmetrical framework was used for estimation. In addition, variance decomposition analysis was applied to examine the dynamic interaction of selected variables. The results indicate the absence of the ‘J-curve’ effect and ‘Marshall-Lerner’ condition in India. Further, the results indicate that domestic prices, domestic demand, and money supply have negative signs, whereas exchange rate and world demand have positive signs in the long and short-run. The results from the variance decomposition indicate that as compared to other variables, the exchange rate highly contributes to forecasting error variance of trade balance in the case of India
The paper explores the relationship between Central bank independence (CBI) and fiscal deficit in India. Moreover, the study tries to assess the impact of CBI on the levels of fiscal deficit. The study incorporates other variables like Gross Domestic Product, financial development, and trade openness to analyze their impact on the fiscal deficit. The study employed Auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) Bounds test developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to examine the long-run relationship between CBI and fiscal deficit. The study also employs a legal index for measuring CBI developed by Jasmine et al (2019) as well as an actual measure of independence developed by Cukierman (1992) to measure CBI in India. The study confirms the long-run relationship between the CBI and fiscal deficit as well as among other variables. An increase in the levels of CBI leads to falling in the levels of fiscal deficit. The other explanatory variables used in the study also confirm the long-run relationship and impact fiscal deficit negatively except for trade openness, which positively impacts the fiscal deficit.
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