The air leakage of a building envelope can be determined from fan pressurization measurements with a blower door. More than 70,000 air leakage measurements have been compiled into a database. In addition to air leakage, the database includes other important characteristics of the dwellings tested, such as floor area, year built, and location. There are also data for some houses on the presence of heating ducts, and floor/basement construction type.The purpose of this work is to identify house characteristics that can be used to predict air leakage. We found that the distribution of leakage normalized with floor area of the house is roughly lognormal. Year built and floor area are the two most significant factors to consider when predicting air leakage: older and smaller houses tend to have higher normalized leakage areas compared to newer and larger ones. Results from multiple linear regression of normalized leakage with respect to these two factors are presented for three types of houses: low-income, energy-efficient, and conventional. We demonstrate a method of using the regression model in conjunction with housing characteristics published by the US Census Bureau to derive a distribution that describes the air leakage of the single-family detached housing stock. Comparison of our estimates with published datasets of air exchange rates suggests that the regression model generates accurate estimates of air leakage distribution.
We estimate postmeter methane (CH) emissions from California's residential natural gas (NG) system using measurements and analysis from a sample of homes and appliances. Quiescent whole-house emissions (i.e., pipe leaks and pilot lights) were measured using a mass balance method in 75 California homes, while CH to CO emission ratios were measured for steady operation of individual combustion appliances and, separately, for transient operation of three tankless water heaters. Measured quiescent whole-house emissions are typically <1 g CH/day, though they exhibit long-tailed gamma distributions containing values >10 g CH/day. Most operating appliances yield undetectable CH to CO enhancements in steady operation (<0.01% of gas consumed), though storage water heaters and stovetops exhibit long-tailed gamma distributions containing high values (∼1-3% of gas consumed), and transients are observed for the tankless heaters. Extrapolating results to the state-level using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling combined with California housing statistics and gas use information suggests quiescent house leakage of 23.4 (13.7-45.6, at 95% confidence) Gg CH, with pilot lights contributing ∼30%. Emissions from steady operation of appliances and their pilots are 13.3 (6.6-37.1) Gg CH/yr, an order of magnitude larger than current inventory estimates, with transients likely increasing appliance emissions further. Together, emissions from residential NG are 35.7 (21.7-64.0) Gg CH/yr, equivalent to ∼15% of California's NG CH emissions, suggesting leak repair, improvement of combustion appliances, and adoption of nonfossil energy heating sources can help California meet its 2050 climate goals.
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