Policies may influence large-scale behavioral tipping

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This paper focuses at the dynamics of attitude change in large groups. A multi-agent computer simulation has been developed as a tool to study hypothesis we take to study these dynamics. A major extension in comparison to earlier models is that Social Judgment Theory is being formalized to incorporate processes of assimilation and contrast in persuasion processes. Results demonstrate that the attitude structure of agents determines the occurrence of assimilation and contrast effects, which in turn cause a group of agents to reach consensus, to bipolarize, or to develop a number of subgroups sharing the same position. Subsequent experiments demonstrate the robustness of these effects for a different formalization of the social network, and the susceptibility for population size.

This study investigates the critical role that opinion leaders (or influentials) play in the adoption process of new products. Recent existing reseach evidence indicates a limited effect of opinion leaders on diffusion processes, yet these studies take into account merely the network position of opinion leaders without addressing their influential power. Empirical findings of our study show that opinion leaders, in addition to having a more central network position, possess more accurate knowledge about a product and tend to be less susceptible to norms and more innovative. Experiments that address these attributes, using an agent-based model, demonstrate that opinion leaders increase the speed of the information stream and the adoption process itself. Furthermore, they increase the maximum adoption percentage. These results indicate that targeting opinion leaders remains a valuable marketing strategy.

Innovation diffusion theory suggests that consumers differ concerning the number of contacts they have and the degree and the direction to which social influences determine their choice to adopt. To test the impacts of these factors on innovation diffusion, in particular the occurrence of hits and flops, a new agent-based model for innovation diffusion is introduced. This model departs from existing percolation models by using more realistic agents (both individual preferences and social influence) and more realistic networks (scale free with cost constraints). Furthermore, it allows consumers to weight the links they have, and it allows links to be directional. In this way this agent-based model tests the effect of VIPs who can have a relatively large impact on many consumers. Results indicate that markets with high social influence are more uncertain concerning the final success of the innovation and that it is more difficult for the innovation to take off. As consumers affect each other to adopt or not at the beginning of the diffusion, the new product has more difficulties to reach the critical mass that is necessary for the product to take off. In addition, results of the simulation experiments show under which conditions highly connected agents (VIPs) determine the final diffusion of the innovation. Although hubs are present in almost any network of consumers, their roles and their effects in different markets can be very different. Using a scale-free network with a cutoff parameter for the maximum number of connections a hub can have, the simulation results show that when hubs have limits to the maximum number of connections the innovation diffusion is severely hampered, and it becomes much more uncertain. However, it is found that the effect of VIPs on the diffusion curve is often overestimated. In fact when the influence of VIPs on the decision making of the consumers is strengthened compared with the influence of normal friends, the diffusion of the innovation is not substantially facilitated. It can be concluded that the importance of VIPs resides in their capacity to inform many consumers and not in a stronger persuasive power.

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The present research investigated how individual differences in Extraversion and Agreeableness affect cooperation in an experimental resource dilemma. Manipulated feedback indicated either that the common resource was being used at a sustainable rate or that it was being rapidly depleted. As predicted, Extraversion was generally negatively related to cooperation, whereas Agreeableness was generally positively related to cooperation. Whereas individuals high in Extraversion and individuals low in Agreeableness were unresponsive to feedback regarding collective resource use, individuals low in Extraversion and individuals high in Agreeableness exercised more self-restraint when the common resource was severely threatened. Exploratory analyses revealed neither interactive effects of Extraversion and Agreeableness nor effects of individual differences in Conscientiousness, Emotional Stability, and Intellect. Together, these results highlight the importance of individual differences in Extraversion and Agreeableness in social dilemma settings.